ARI vs SF prediction for May 27, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SF 2.8 - ARI 3.6. ARI is favored with a 56.8% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 6.5 total runs.
SF
2.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
ARI
3.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
SFARI
+1.5
Run Line (SF)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.5% (2,610 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
ARI
246
SF
135
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Michael Soroka R
ARI
SV34%81 mph34% whiff
FF32%94 mph11% whiff
FC12%89 mph16% whiff
Trevor McDonald R
SF
SI59%94 mph16% whiff
SL28%87 mph39% whiff
CH12%84 mph47% whiff
Weather Impact
Oracle Park
66°F7 mph wind
HR: 0.980 Total: 0.987
7mph in
Bullpen Comparison
ARI
3.45ERA
3.73FIP
8.10K/9
2.70BB/9
1.04WHIP
SF
3.30ERA
4.07FIP
8.01K/9
4.77BB/9
1.31WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-46.2% EV
-169
TOTAL OVER 7.5
-29.6% EV
-112
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
+21.1% EV
-108
F5 UNDER 4.5
+15.3% EV
-152
ML HOME
-11.8% EV
+100
NRFI NRFI
+6.2% EV
-143
First 5 Innings & NRFI
ARI F5
1.7 runs
40.9% win
SF F5
1.5 runs
36.9% win
F5 Total
3.3
NRFI
66.2%
YRFI
33.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.62
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.6
Over 0.5 HR
80%
Over 1.5 HR
48%
No HR
20%
Casey Schmitt SF28.1%
ISO: 0.282 | Barrel: 15.5% | vs Michael Soroka | Park: 0.88x
Ketel Marte ARI19.8%
ISO: 0.210 | Barrel: 10.2% | vs Trevor McDonald | Park: 0.88x Platoon: 1.12x
Willy Adames SF18.7%
ISO: 0.205 | Barrel: 8.7% | vs Michael Soroka | Park: 0.88x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Michael Soroka
0.0 K projected
ARI | K/9: 0.0
Trevor McDonald
0.0 K projected
SF | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
ARI8 injured
Nolan Arenado 3BDAY-TO-DAY
Pavin Smith 1B60-DAY-IL
Hayden Durke RPDEVELOPMENTAL LIST
Jordan Lawlar LF60-DAY-IL
A.J. Puk RP60-DAY-IL
A.J. Vukovich CFDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
SF8 injured
Logan Webb SP15-DAY-IL
Jung Hoo Lee RF10-DAY-IL
Heliot Ramos LF10-DAY-IL
Reiver Sanmartin RP60-DAY-IL
Jason Foley RP60-DAY-IL
Jared Oliva CF60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
ARI 56.8%
-46.2 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-46.2 pts
Total
7.5
+21.1 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.