ARI vs TB prediction for June 28, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects TB 4.5 - ARI 3.2. TB is favored with a 65.9% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 7.7 total runs.
TB
4.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
ARI
3.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
TBARI
-1.5
Run Line (TB)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 63.2% (2,652 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
ARI
135
TB
346
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Merrill Kelly R
ARI
FF26%92 mph12% whiff
CH26%88 mph27% whiff
FC15%91 mph13% whiff
Drew Rasmussen R
TB
FC32%90 mph24% whiff
FF27%96 mph23% whiff
SI22%96 mph11% whiff
Weather Impact
Tropicana Field
92°F3 mph windRoof: closed
HR: 1.000 Total: 1.000
Indoor (neutral)
Bullpen Comparison
ARI
3.28ERA
3.68FIP
8.28K/9
3.10BB/9
1.10WHIP
TB
4.35ERA
4.16FIP
8.55K/9
3.50BB/9
1.33WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-46.1% EV
-133
F5_ML AWAY
-19.0% EV
+172
ML AWAY
-8.5% EV
+166
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
-4.9% EV
-102
TOTAL OVER 7.5
-4.9% EV
-120
F5 OVER 4.5
+3.7% EV
-106
First 5 Innings & NRFI
ARI F5
1.5 runs
24.6% win
TB F5
3.0 runs
62.1% win
F5 Total
4.6
NRFI
51.2%
YRFI
48.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.07
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.7
Over 0.5 HR
93%
Over 1.5 HR
74%
No HR
7%
Junior Caminero TB30.0%
ISO: 0.227 | Barrel: 12.5% | vs Merrill Kelly | Park: 0.92x
Jonathan Aranda TB30.0%
ISO: 0.228 | Barrel: 8.7% | vs Merrill Kelly | Park: 0.92x Platoon: 1.12x
Corbin Carroll ARI25.6%
ISO: 0.264 | Barrel: 13.1% | vs Drew Rasmussen | Park: 0.92x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Merrill Kelly
0.0 K projected
ARI | K/9: 0.0
Drew Rasmussen
0.0 K projected
TB | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
ARI8 injured
Michael Soroka SP15-DAY-IL
James McCann C10-DAY-IL
Ryne Nelson SP60-DAY-IL
Jordan Lawlar LF10-DAY-IL
A.J. Puk RP60-DAY-IL
Juan Centeno CDEVELOPMENTAL LIST
+2 more
TB8 injured
Jake Fraley RF10-DAY-IL
Luis Guerrero RPDEVELOPMENTAL LIST
Tre' Morgan 1BDAY-TO-DAY
Logan Davidson 1BDAY-TO-DAY
Steven Matz SP15-DAY-IL
Edwin Uceta RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1YELLOW ZONE55.3% WR (n=133)
TB home favorite at -196 projects 65.9% win prob vs market 66.2%, creating only -1.0% edge on ML. Drew Rasmussen (B grade starter) heavily favors Tampa's pitching, but indoor climate (Tropicana Field), ARI's travel fatigue, and favorable park factor to home team all price-in already. No clean value; market fairly valued.
Key Factors
- Pitcher advantage TB: Rasmussen (B grade, 9.5 K/9, 26.8% K rate) dominates Kelly (C grade, 5.3 K/9, 12.9% K rate) — 15-pt K rate differential = ACE vs back-end mismatch
- Park factor: Tropicana Field (closed, neutral) = baseline conditions; no weather edge
- Implied market 66.2% near model 65.6% = fairly valued. Edge of -1.0% not actionable.
- Bullpen edge to TB: 4.35 ERA vs ARI 3.28 ERA — ARI actually has better bullpen, slight undervalue argument, but negated by SP advantage
- Totals: Model 7.73 vs market 7.5 = +0.23 edge on under; not significant
Risk Factors
- Historical home favorite zone (55.3% WR) suggests market slightly underpricing, but -196 is respect-heavy. Overdue for ARI to cover.
- Merrill Kelly (ARI SP): 5.3 K/9, 12.9% K rate = poor strikeout rate, likely to give up contact outs
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
TB 65.9%
+3.0 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+3.0 pts
Total
7.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →