FINAL: BAL 2 — ATL 3. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected BAL 3.0 - ATL 4.8 (ATL at 57.4% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 7.9 total runs.
BAL
3.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
ATL
4.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
BALATL
+1.5
Run Line (BAL)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.0% (2,978 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
ATL
357
BAL
135
Projected
BAL 3.0 — ATL 4.8
Actual
BAL 2 — ATL 3
Pick Results
ATL @ BAL NRFInrfiWIN+0.47u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Reynaldo López R
ATL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF54%94 mph14% whiff
SL31%84 mph33% whiff
CU11%74 mph21% whiff
Shane Baz R
BAL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF34%96 mph13% whiff
KC33%85 mph27% whiff
FC17%90 mph19% whiff
Weather Impact
Oriole Park at Camden Yards
83°F4 mph wind
HR: 1.031 Total: 1.015
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
ATL
2.18ERA
2.83FIP
9.74K/9
2.51BB/9
1.00WHIP
BAL
4.34ERA
4.01FIP
8.76K/9
3.44BB/9
1.30WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-50.9% EV
-167
F5_ML HOME
-21.3% EV
-116
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-18.2% EV
-122
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
+17.7% EV
+138
ML HOME
-12.6% EV
-106
F5_ML AWAY
+11.3% EV
-108
First 5 Innings & NRFI
ATL F5
2.5 runs
52.1% win
BAL F5
1.7 runs
31.5% win
F5 Total
4.2
NRFI
56.7%
YRFI
43.3%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.88
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.1
Over 0.5 HR
86%
Over 1.5 HR
60%
No HR
14%
Drake Baldwin ATL30.0%
ISO: 0.192 | Barrel: 11.0% | vs Shane Baz | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Matt Olson ATL30.0%
ISO: 0.283 | Barrel: 14.3% | vs Shane Baz | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Pete Alonso BAL30.0%
ISO: 0.250 | Barrel: 18.9% | vs Reynaldo López | Park: 1.03x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Reynaldo López
0.0 K projected
ATL | K/9: 0.0
Shane Baz
0.0 K projected
BAL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
ATL8 injured
Ronald Acuna Jr. RF10-DAY-IL
AJ Smith-Shawver SP60-DAY-IL
Sean Murphy C60-DAY-IL
Spencer Schwellenbach SP60-DAY-IL
Spencer Strider SP60-DAY-IL
Robert Suarez RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
BAL8 injured
Chris Bassitt SP60-DAY-IL
Adley Rutschman C10-DAY-IL
Samuel Basallo C10-DAY-IL
Ryan Helsley RP60-DAY-IL
Blaze Alexander 3B10-DAY-IL
Keegan Akin RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
ATL 57.4%
-50.9 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-50.9 pts
Total
8.5
+10.1 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →