FINAL: MIN 11 — OAK 8. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected MIN 4.9 - OAK 4.2 (MIN at 55.9% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 10.0. Model projects 9.1 total runs.
MIN
4.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 10.0
OAK
4.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
MINOAK
-1.5
Run Line (MIN)
10.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
OAK L5MIN W4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 56.8% (2,978 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
OAK
246
MIN
357
Projected
MIN 4.9 — OAK 4.2
Actual
MIN 11 — OAK 8
Pick Results
OAK @ MIN NRFInrfiLOSS-1.50u
OAK @ MIN NRFInrfiLOSS-1.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Jeffrey Springs L
OAK
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF44%91 mph12% whiff
SL25%84 mph21% whiff
CH23%80 mph40% whiff
Connor Prielipp L
MIN
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SL30%87 mph25% whiff
FF30%95 mph12% whiff
CU17%82 mph32% whiff
Weather Impact
Target Field
96°F6 mph wind
HR: 1.060 Total: 1.030
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
OAK
4.87ERA
3.91FIP
9.81K/9
4.20BB/9
1.44WHIP
MIN
4.99ERA
4.47FIP
8.81K/9
4.51BB/9
1.47WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-39.4% EV
-152
TOTAL OVER 10.0
-22.3% EV
-105
TOTAL UNDER 10.0
+12.4% EV
-115
F5_ML AWAY
-9.2% EV
+124
ML HOME
-6.5% EV
-156
NRFI NRFI
+6.2% EV
+108
First 5 Innings & NRFI
OAK F5
2.1 runs
34.1% win
MIN F5
2.9 runs
51.6% win
F5 Total
5.0
NRFI
54.5%
YRFI
45.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.98
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.7
Over 0.5 HR
93%
Over 1.5 HR
74%
No HR
7%
Nick Kurtz OAK30.0%
ISO: 0.202 | Barrel: 18.3% | vs Connor Prielipp | Park: 0.99x
Byron Buxton MIN30.0%
ISO: 0.208 | Barrel: 17.6% | vs Jeffrey Springs | Park: 0.99x Platoon: 1.12x
Tyler Soderstrom OAK27.0%
ISO: 0.292 | Barrel: 11.4% | vs Connor Prielipp | Park: 0.99x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Jeffrey Springs
0.0 K projected
OAK | K/9: 0.0
Connor Prielipp
0.0 K projected
MIN | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
OAK8 injured
Shea Langeliers C10-DAY-IL
J.T. Ginn SP15-DAY-IL
Joshua Kuroda-Grauer 3B10-DAY-IL
Mark Leiter Jr. RP15-DAY-IL
Colby Thomas RFDAY-TO-DAY
Luis Severino SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
MIN6 injured
Mike Paredes SPDAY-TO-DAY
David Festa SP60-DAY-IL
Mick Abel SP60-DAY-IL
Garrett Acton RP60-DAY-IL
Anthony Banda RP15-DAY-IL
Pablo Lopez SP60-DAY-IL
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
MIN 55.9%
+4.7 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+4.7 pts
Total
10.0
+12.4 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →