FINAL: MIA 3 — SD 5. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected MIA 4.6 - SD 3.9 (MIA at 54.0% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 8.5 total runs.
MIA
4.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
SD
3.9
Projected Score
Win Probability
MIASD
+1.5
Run Line (MIA)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
SD W5MIA
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.7% (2,978 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SD
246
MIA
357
Projected
MIA 4.6 — SD 3.9
Actual
MIA 3 — SD 5
Pick Results
SD @ MIA NRFInrfiWIN+1.47u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Walker Buehler R
SD
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FC23%90 mph19% whiff
FF21%94 mph10% whiff
SI17%94 mph9% whiff
Janson Junk R
MIA
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF35%94 mph10% whiff
SL22%86 mph13% whiff
CH19%87 mph26% whiff
Weather Impact
loanDepot park
85°F8 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 0.993 Total: 0.993
thin air, 8mph in
Bullpen Comparison
SD
3.15ERA
3.66FIP
8.41K/9
3.44BB/9
1.23WHIP
MIA
3.85ERA
3.56FIP
9.97K/9
4.48BB/9
1.21WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-29.6% EV
-222
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-12.0% EV
+180
F5_ML AWAY
-11.7% EV
+112
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-9.8% EV
-122
ML AWAY
-4.7% EV
+106
NRFI NRFI
+4.6% EV
-104
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SD F5
2.0 runs
33.9% win
MIA F5
2.7 runs
50.5% win
F5 Total
4.7
NRFI
56.3%
YRFI
43.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.94
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.3
Over 0.5 HR
89%
Over 1.5 HR
66%
No HR
11%
Griffin Conine MIA30.0%
ISO: 0.148 | Barrel: 14.8% | vs Walker Buehler | Park: 0.93x Platoon: 1.12x
Heriberto Hernández MIA29.3%
ISO: 0.109 | Barrel: 10.9% | vs Walker Buehler | Park: 0.93x
Luis Campusano SD26.1%
ISO: 0.090 | Barrel: 9.0% | vs Janson Junk | Park: 0.93x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Walker Buehler
0.0 K projected
SD | K/9: 0.0
Janson Junk
0.0 K projected
MIA | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
SD8 injured
Joe Musgrove SP60-DAY-IL
Lucas Giolito SP15-DAY-IL
Jeremiah Estrada RP15-DAY-IL
Nick Pivetta SP60-DAY-IL
Miguel Andujar DH10-DAY-IL
David Morgan RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
MIA8 injured
Max Meyer SP15-DAY-IL
Owen Caissie RF10-DAY-IL
Josh Ekness RP60-DAY-IL
Ronny Henriquez RP60-DAY-IL
Anthony Bender RP15-DAY-IL
William Kempner RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
MIA 54.0%
-29.6 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-29.6 pts
Total
8.5
+0.9 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →