FINAL: WSH 10 — ARI 7. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected WSH 5.7 - ARI 5.0 (WSH at 54.9% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 10.0. Model projects 10.7 total runs.
WSH
5.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 10.0
ARI
5.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
WSHARI
+1.5
Run Line (WSH)
10.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 56.5% (2,978 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
ARI
357
WSH
468
Projected
WSH 5.7 — ARI 5.0
Actual
WSH 10 — ARI 7
Pick Results
ARI @ WSH NRFInrfiLOSS-1.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Kohl Drake L
ARI
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF48%91 mph19% whiff
CU19%78 mph50% whiff
CH16%82 mph57% whiff
Miles Mikolas R
WSH
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF25%93 mph12% whiff
SI24%93 mph7% whiff
SL22%88 mph17% whiff
Weather Impact
Nationals Park
84°F4 mph wind
HR: 1.039 Total: 1.020
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
ARI
3.28ERA
3.68FIP
8.28K/9
3.10BB/9
1.10WHIP
WSH
4.62ERA
4.93FIP
7.77K/9
4.06BB/9
1.38WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-21.1% EV
+134
F5_ML AWAY
-20.6% EV
-114
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-19.7% EV
-161
ML AWAY
-12.0% EV
-118
F5_ML HOME
+10.4% EV
-110
ML HOME
+4.8% EV
+100
First 5 Innings & NRFI
ARI F5
2.5 runs
33.2% win
WSH F5
3.6 runs
54.7% win
F5 Total
6.1
NRFI
48.7%
YRFI
51.3%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.18
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.3
Over 0.5 HR
96%
Over 1.5 HR
83%
No HR
4%
James Wood WSH30.0%
ISO: 0.228 | Barrel: 16.3% | vs Kohl Drake
Andrés Chaparro WSH30.0%
ISO: 0.111 | Barrel: 11.1% | vs Kohl Drake | Platoon: 1.12x
Corbin Carroll ARI28.8%
ISO: 0.264 | Barrel: 14.5% | vs Miles Mikolas | Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Kohl Drake
0.0 K projected
ARI | K/9: 0.0
Miles Mikolas
0.0 K projected
WSH | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
ARI8 injured
Zac Gallen SP15-DAY-IL
Justin Martinez RP60-DAY-IL
Michael Soroka SP15-DAY-IL
Jordan Lawlar LF10-DAY-IL
Drey Jameson RP15-DAY-IL
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. LF10-DAY-IL
+2 more
WSH8 injured
Brad Lord RP15-DAY-IL
Trevor Williams SP60-DAY-IL
Jake Irvin SP60-DAY-IL
PJ Poulin RP15-DAY-IL
Richard Lovelady RP60-DAY-IL
Drew Millas C10-DAY-IL
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
WSH 54.9%
-19.7 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-19.7 pts
Total
10.0
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →