CLE vs TB prediction for July 26, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects TB 3.4 - CLE 3.9. CLE is favored with a 50.7% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.0. Model projects 7.3 total runs.
TB
3.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.0
CLE
3.9
Projected Score
Win Probability
TBCLE
-1.5
Run Line (TB)
7.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 51.0% (2,978 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CLE
246
TB
135
Projected
TB 3.4 — CLE 3.9
Actual
TB 1 — CLE 0
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Parker Messick L
CLE
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF35%94 mph23% whiff
CH24%86 mph35% whiff
SI17%92 mph8% whiff
Drew Rasmussen R
TB
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FC31%90 mph23% whiff
FF27%96 mph22% whiff
SI22%96 mph12% whiff
Weather Impact
Tropicana Field
88°F9 mph windRoof: closed
HR: 1.000 Total: 1.000
Indoor (neutral)
Bullpen Comparison
CLE
3.52ERA
3.55FIP
10.51K/9
3.50BB/9
1.23WHIP
TB
4.35ERA
4.16FIP
8.55K/9
3.50BB/9
1.33WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CLE F5
1.9 runs
43.8% win
TB F5
1.7 runs
37.3% win
F5 Total
3.7
NRFI
62.4%
YRFI
37.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.72
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
CLE1 injured
Shawn Armstrong RP15-DAY-IL
TB8 injured
Taylor Walls SSDAY-TO-DAY
Manuel Rodriguez RP60-DAY-IL
Gavin Lux LF60-DAY-IL
Jake Fraley RF10-DAY-IL
Steven Wilson RP60-DAY-IL
Edwin Uceta RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →