FINAL: CHC 8 — ATL 4. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected CHC 6.2 - ATL 4.9 (CHC at 67.6% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 11.1 total runs.
CHC
6.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
ATL
4.9
Projected Score
Win Probability
CHCATL
-1.5
Run Line (CHC)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
ATL L5CHC W5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 73.2% (3,908 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
ATL
357
CHC
468
Projected
CHC 6.2 — ATL 4.9
Actual
CHC 8 — ATL 4
Pick Results
CHC MLmlWIN+0.33u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
JR Ritchie R
ATL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
CU27%83 mph29% whiff
SI21%94 mph11% whiff
FF18%94 mph19% whiff
Shota Imanaga L
CHC
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF40%92 mph18% whiff
FS34%83 mph39% whiff
ST15%81 mph28% whiff
Weather Impact
Wrigley Field
66°F6 mph wind
HR: 0.995 Total: 0.995
5mph in
Bullpen Comparison
ATL
3.10ERA
3.40FIP
9.58K/9
3.10BB/9
1.13WHIP
CHC
4.29ERA
4.76FIP
9.20K/9
4.13BB/9
1.34WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 7.5
+28.0% EV
-101
F5 OVER 4.5
+17.1% EV
+112
NRFI NRFI
-17.1% EV
-122
ML AWAY
-13.0% EV
+140
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-9.4% EV
-161
F5_ML AWAY
-8.7% EV
+146
First 5 Innings & NRFI
ATL F5
2.6 runs
32.2% win
CHC F5
3.8 runs
55.6% win
F5 Total
6.4
NRFI
41.9%
YRFI
58.1%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.39
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.8
Over 0.5 HR
98%
Over 1.5 HR
88%
No HR
2%
Matt Olson ATL30.0%
ISO: 0.242 | Barrel: 14.7% | vs Shota Imanaga | Park: 1.03x
Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC30.0%
ISO: 0.310 | Barrel: 16.5% | vs JR Ritchie | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Drake Baldwin ATL29.4%
ISO: 0.140 | Barrel: 8.8% | vs Shota Imanaga | Park: 1.03x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
JR Ritchie
0.0 K projected
ATL | K/9: 0.0
Shota Imanaga
0.0 K projected
CHC | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
ATL8 injured
Reynaldo Lopez RP15-DAY-IL
Joe Jimenez RP60-DAY-IL
Robert Suarez RP60-DAY-IL
Lane Thomas LF10-DAY-IL
Bryce Elder SP15-DAY-IL
Spencer Strider SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
CHC8 injured
Shelby Miller RP60-DAY-IL
Trent Thornton RP15-DAY-IL
Dansby Swanson SS10-DAY-IL
Gavin Hollowell RP15-DAY-IL
Ben Brown RP60-DAY-IL
Justin Steele SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1
OVER 7.5 shows 26.2% edge, strongest total on slate. Shota Imanaga (4.19 ERA, B grade) controls; JR Ritchie (4.86 ERA) serviceable. Model projects 11.04 runs despite cold 66.3F + 5mph wind in, suggesting offensive power overrides weather.
Key Factors
- Massive edge: 26.2% suggests market overweighting external factors; model projects 11.04 vs 7.5 line
- Weather suppression countered by power: cold 66.3F + wind in still yields 11.04 projection
- Bullpen imbalance: ATL elite 3.1 ERA vs CHC weak 4.29 ERA favors overs late
- Lineup power: CHC 6.22 home mean (highest on slate) vs ATL 4.82 away mean
Risk Factors
- Totals historically mixed despite 26.2% edge; variance risk high
- Weather could suppress more than modeled in cold late-September conditions
- Imanaga's command could suppress CHC lineup more than expected
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CHC 67.6%
+8.0 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+8.0 pts
Total
7.5
+28.0 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.