FINAL: MIN 5 — NYY 4. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected MIN 4.1 - NYY 4.4 (NYY at 52.2% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 8.5 total runs.
MIN
4.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
NYY
4.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
MINNYY
+1.5
Run Line (MIN)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
NYYMIN L4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 52.6% (3,908 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
NYY
246
MIN
246
Projected
MIN 4.1 — NYY 4.4
Actual
MIN 5 — NYY 4
Pick Results
MIN MLmlWIN+0.64u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Carlos Rodón L
NYY
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF46%94 mph20% whiff
SL25%86 mph34% whiff
CH15%85 mph37% whiff
Zebby Matthews R
MIN
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF36%95 mph11% whiff
SL22%87 mph32% whiff
CH13%87 mph17% whiff
Weather Impact
Target Field
67°F8 mph wind
HR: 0.987 Total: 0.990
7mph in
Bullpen Comparison
NYY
3.25ERA
4.15FIP
8.28K/9
3.65BB/9
1.24WHIP
MIN
4.49ERA
4.13FIP
9.23K/9
4.09BB/9
1.40WHIP
Betting Edges
F5 UNDER 4.5
-7.5% EV
-141
TOTAL UNDER 8.0
-7.2% EV
-108
NRFI YRFI
-6.9% EV
+108
F5_ML AWAY
-6.1% EV
-143
NRFI NRFI
-5.0% EV
-139
ML HOME
+4.6% EV
+130
First 5 Innings & NRFI
NYY F5
2.5 runs
46.5% win
MIN F5
2.2 runs
38.4% win
F5 Total
4.8
NRFI
55.3%
YRFI
44.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.95
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.1
Over 0.5 HR
88%
Over 1.5 HR
62%
No HR
12%
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Carlos Rodón
0.0 K projected
NYY | K/9: 0.0
Zebby Matthews
0.0 K projected
MIN | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
NYY7 injured
Ryan Weathers SP15-DAY-IL
Clarke Schmidt SP60-DAY-IL
Jazz Chisholm Jr. 2B10-DAY-IL
Fernando Cruz RP15-DAY-IL
Trent Grisham CF10-DAY-IL
Kervin Castro RP60-DAY-IL
+1 more
MIN8 injured
Kaelen Culpepper SSDAY-TO-DAY
Trevor Larnach LFDAY-TO-DAY
Byron Buxton CF10-DAY-IL
Mike Paredes SP60-DAY-IL
Cole Sands RP60-DAY-IL
David Festa SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1
Carlos Rodón (3.18 ERA, 26.8% K-rate, elite stuff) dramatically outpitches Zebby Matthews (5.38 ERA, 19.8% K-rate, poor stuff) on road; MIN home field edge exists historically well-supported despite market pricing MIN at +129.
Key Factors
- SP quality: Rodón 3.18 ERA, 26.8% K-rate vs Matthews 5.38 ERA, 19.8% K-rate — 2.2 ERA gap with elite K differential
- Home field modest: Target Field park factor 0.99, wind 7mph in (slightly suppresses)
- MIN bullpen 4.49 ERA vs NYY 3.25 ERA (elite) — pitching advantage to NYY full-game
- Recent away underdog success: 30-day away ML a supportive track record
Risk Factors
- Zebby Matthews has B- command and is not utterly helpless
- Aaron Judge (DAY-TO-DAY) could reduce NYY offensive output
- MIN fighting for playoff spot (motivation) vs NYY less urgency
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
NYY 52.2%
+3.2 pts
Run Line
+1.5
+3.2 pts
Total
8.0
+0.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.