FINAL: NYM 1 — BAL 7. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected NYM 5.1 - BAL 4.6 (NYM at 58.0% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 9.7 total runs.
NYM
5.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
BAL
4.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
NYMBAL
-1.5
Run Line (NYM)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
BAL W4NYM
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 60.2% (3,908 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
BAL
357
NYM
357
Projected
NYM 5.1 — BAL 4.6
Actual
NYM 1 — BAL 7
Pick Results
NYM MLmlLOSS-0.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Chris Bassitt R
BAL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI38%92 mph12% whiff
CU22%71 mph28% whiff
FC19%90 mph19% whiff
Xzavion Curry R
NYM
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF34%91 mph9% whiff
SL31%84 mph17% whiff
FS16%84 mph41% whiff
Weather Impact
Citi Field
72°F8 mph wind
HR: 1.038 Total: 1.021
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
BAL
4.02ERA
3.74FIP
8.80K/9
3.63BB/9
1.30WHIP
NYM
4.41ERA
4.22FIP
9.57K/9
3.83BB/9
1.36WHIP
Betting Edges
F5 UNDER 5.5
-9.4% EV
-141
ML AWAY
-8.1% EV
+106
NRFI NRFI
-8.1% EV
-102
TOTAL OVER 9.0
+6.2% EV
+100
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-5.5% EV
-189
ML HOME
+4.1% EV
-114
First 5 Innings & NRFI
BAL F5
2.8 runs
39.5% win
NYM F5
3.2 runs
47.7% win
F5 Total
5.9
NRFI
45.8%
YRFI
54.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.31
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.9
Over 0.5 HR
94%
Over 1.5 HR
77%
No HR
6%
Pete Alonso BAL30.0%
ISO: 0.251 | Barrel: 13.3% | vs Xzavion Curry | Park: 0.96x
Coby Mayo BAL30.0%
ISO: 0.145 | Barrel: 13.9% | vs Xzavion Curry | Park: 0.96x
Samuel Basallo BAL29.2%
ISO: 0.221 | Barrel: 9.1% | vs Xzavion Curry | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Chris Bassitt
0.0 K projected
BAL | K/9: 0.0
Xzavion Curry
0.0 K projected
NYM | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
BAL8 injured
Shane Baz SPDAY-TO-DAY
Christian Franklin CF10-DAY-IL
Kyle Bradish SP15-DAY-IL
Ryan Helsley RP60-DAY-IL
Blaze Alexander 3B10-DAY-IL
Ryan Mountcastle 1B60-DAY-IL
+2 more
NYM7 injured
Daniel Duarte RP15-DAY-IL
Robert Stock RP15-DAY-IL
Devin Williams RP15-DAY-IL
Cionel Perez RP15-DAY-IL
Jorge Polanco DH60-DAY-IL
Reed Garrett RP60-DAY-IL
+1 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1
NYM home ML shows 4.9% edge historically well-supported. Xzavion Curry (3.72 ERA) vs Chris Bassitt (5.27 ERA) — modest matchup slightly favors NYM at home. Citi Field neutral, weather neutral.
Key Factors
- SP matchup slight: Curry 3.72 ERA (weak stuff 0.091) vs Bassitt 5.27 ERA — modest gap in NYM favor at home
- Home field modest: Citi Field neutral park factor, mild weather
- historically well-supported home fave: a supportive track record above 50.3% baseline
- Recent home fave success: 30-day data a supportive track record
Risk Factors
- Modest edge of 4.9% — game fairly priced, not blowout conviction
- BAL lineup capable, Bassitt serviceable in key spots
- NRFI edge negative (-4.8%) — avoid first inning plays
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
NYM 58.0%
+3.3 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+3.3 pts
Total
9.0
+6.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.