DET vs TOR prediction for September 16, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects TOR 4.0 - DET 4.9. DET is favored with a 59.7% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 8.9 total runs.
TOR
4.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
DET
4.9
Projected Score
Win Probability
TORDET
-1.5
Run Line (TOR)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 61.0% (3,908 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
DET
357
TOR
246
Projected
TOR 4.0 — DET 4.9
Actual
TOR 5 — DET 1
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Keider Montero R
DET
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF31%94 mph11% whiff
SI22%95 mph8% whiff
SL19%86 mph25% whiff
Max Scherzer R
TOR
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF47%93 mph14% whiff
SL18%86 mph24% whiff
CH16%84 mph17% whiff
Weather Impact
Rogers Centre
76°F5 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 0.995 Total: 0.995
5mph in
Bullpen Comparison
DET
4.20ERA
4.55FIP
8.36K/9
4.14BB/9
1.31WHIP
TOR
3.43ERA
4.04FIP
8.44K/9
3.79BB/9
1.26WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
DET F5
2.8 runs
51.2% win
TOR F5
2.1 runs
33.7% win
F5 Total
4.9
NRFI
53.2%
YRFI
46.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.04
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
DET8 injured
Colt Keith 3BDAY-TO-DAY
Justin Verlander SP60-DAY-IL
Jack Flaherty SP15-DAY-IL
Wenceel Perez RF60-DAY-IL
Matt Vierling CF60-DAY-IL
Kerry Carpenter RF10-DAY-IL
+2 more
TOR8 injured
Trey Yesavage SP15-DAY-IL
Jameson Taillon SP15-DAY-IL
Anthony Santander RF60-DAY-IL
Shane Bieber SP15-DAY-IL
Rudy Martin Jr. RF10-DAY-IL
Cody Ponce SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.