FINAL: STL 5 — SF 6. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected STL 4.4 - SF 4.3 (STL at 53.3% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 8.6 total runs.
STL
4.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
SF
4.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
STLSF
-1.5
Run Line (STL)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
SF W4STL L5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.2% (3,908 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SF
246
STL
246
Projected
STL 4.4 — SF 4.3
Actual
STL 5 — SF 6
Pick Results
STL MLmlLOSS-0.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Anthony Molina R
SF
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF46%96 mph17% whiff
CH22%87 mph20% whiff
CU15%85 mph31% whiff
Matthew Liberatore L
STL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF30%94 mph11% whiff
SL26%86 mph35% whiff
CU18%80 mph38% whiff
Weather Impact
Busch Stadium
83°F5 mph wind
HR: 1.010 Total: 1.003
thin air, 5mph in
Bullpen Comparison
SF
4.52ERA
4.59FIP
6.97K/9
4.36BB/9
1.48WHIP
STL
4.50ERA
4.26FIP
8.36K/9
4.19BB/9
1.35WHIP
Betting Edges
F5_ML AWAY
+8.9% EV
+130
F5 UNDER 4.5
-6.9% EV
-118
NRFI YRFI
-6.8% EV
-104
ML HOME
-6.7% EV
-149
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-6.6% EV
+139
F5 OVER 4.5
-5.1% EV
-110
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SF F5
2.5 runs
42.9% win
STL F5
2.5 runs
41.4% win
F5 Total
5.0
NRFI
52.7%
YRFI
47.3%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.03
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.2
Over 0.5 HR
89%
Over 1.5 HR
64%
No HR
11%
Bryce Eldridge SF30.0%
ISO: 0.208 | Barrel: 9.7% | vs Matthew Liberatore | Park: 0.98x
Jordan Walker STL26.9%
ISO: 0.193 | Barrel: 10.2% | vs Anthony Molina | Park: 0.98x
Alec Burleson STL24.8%
ISO: 0.232 | Barrel: 9.3% | vs Anthony Molina | Park: 0.98x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Anthony Molina
0.0 K projected
SF | K/9: 0.0
Matthew Liberatore
0.0 K projected
STL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
SF8 injured
Randy Rodriguez RP60-DAY-IL
Rafael Devers 1B60-DAY-IL
Victor Bericoto LF10-DAY-IL
Carson Whisenhunt SP60-DAY-IL
Marcelo Mayer 2B10-DAY-IL
JT Brubaker RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
STL4 injured
Blaze Jordan 3B10-DAY-IL
Hunter Dobbins SP15-DAY-IL
Everson Pereira RF10-DAY-IL
Max Rajcic RP60-DAY-IL
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL
Matthew Liberatore (5.97 ERA) marginally worse than Anthony Molina (5.66 ERA) at home, but market has already priced both starters as mediocre. Away ML edge of 5.0% falls into historically historically weak for away underdog plays (a supportive track record).
Key Factors
- Both starters poor: Liberatore 5.97 ERA vs Molina 5.66 ERA — 0.31 ERA gap modest, within noise
- Away historically weak: SF away ML in historical historically weak
- Lineups unclear: Neither team confirmed for lineup depth
Risk Factors
- historically weak away ML plays have WORST historical performance (a supportive track record)
- Model likely overvaluing SF due to raw gap without factoring historical support history
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
STL 53.3%
-6.6 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-6.6 pts
Total
8.0
+1.5 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.