FINAL: PIT 4 — MIL 5. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected PIT 4.7 - MIL 5.2 (MIL at 52.2% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 9.9 total runs.
PIT
4.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
MIL
5.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
PITMIL
+1.5
Run Line (PIT)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 52.6% (3,908 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIL
357
PIT
357
Projected
PIT 4.7 — MIL 5.2
Actual
PIT 4 — MIL 5
Pick Results
PIT MLmlLOSS-0.50u
PIT MLmlLOSS-0.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Logan Henderson R
MIL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF46%93 mph17% whiff
CH35%83 mph36% whiff
FC16%88 mph17% whiff
Jared Jones R
PIT
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF46%98 mph19% whiff
SL35%90 mph38% whiff
CH11%93 mph39% whiff
Weather Impact
PNC Park
86°F2 mph wind
HR: 1.046 Total: 1.023
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
MIL
3.02ERA
3.39FIP
9.42K/9
3.58BB/9
1.20WHIP
PIT
3.86ERA
3.65FIP
9.60K/9
4.23BB/9
1.28WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 7.5
+18.9% EV
+104
NRFI NRFI
-12.1% EV
-156
F5 OVER 3.5
+8.3% EV
-120
F5_ML AWAY
-6.9% EV
-130
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-4.5% EV
+135
ML AWAY
-4.1% EV
-125
First 5 Innings & NRFI
MIL F5
2.8 runs
44.3% win
PIT F5
2.6 runs
40.8% win
F5 Total
5.4
NRFI
51.1%
YRFI
48.9%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.06
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.9
Over 0.5 HR
94%
Over 1.5 HR
77%
No HR
6%
Jake Bauers MIL30.0%
ISO: 0.209 | Barrel: 13.1% | vs Jared Jones | Park: 0.95x Platoon: 1.12x
Oneil Cruz PIT30.0%
ISO: 0.224 | Barrel: 11.6% | vs Logan Henderson | Park: 0.95x Platoon: 1.12x
Brandon Lowe PIT30.0%
ISO: 0.250 | Barrel: 12.6% | vs Logan Henderson | Park: 0.95x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Logan Henderson
0.0 K projected
MIL | K/9: 0.0
Jared Jones
0.0 K projected
PIT | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
MIL7 injured
Grant Anderson RP15-DAY-IL
Bryse Wilson RP15-DAY-IL
Brandon Woodruff SP60-DAY-IL
Rob Zastryzny RP60-DAY-IL
Brian Fitzpatrick RP60-DAY-IL
Quinn Priester SP60-DAY-IL
+1 more
PIT6 injured
Esmerlyn Valdez RF10-DAY-IL
Braxton Ashcraft SP15-DAY-IL
Isaac Mattson RP15-DAY-IL
Kirby Yates RP15-DAY-IL
Endy Rodriguez C60-DAY-IL
Mitch Keller SP60-DAY-IL
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1
OVER 7.5 shows strong 16.3% edge. Jared Jones (4.43 ERA, B grade) and Logan Henderson (2.53 ERA, B+ grade) are both solid but not elite. Model projects 9.51 total runs vs 7.5 line, in warm 86.4F weather at neutral PNC Park.
Key Factors
- SP quality duo: Jones 4.43 ERA (27.9% K-rate) and Henderson 2.53 ERA (30.3% K-rate) are SOLID not elite
- Weather boost: 86.4F + minimal wind + PNC Park neutral factor = not a suppressed scoring environment
- Lineup power: MIL Vargas 24.4% HR prob, Grichuk 22.1%; PIT Walker 26.9%, Burleson 24.8%
- Model projection 9.51 runs vs 7.5 line = 2.01 run gap
Risk Factors
- Totals historically mixed despite edge; disabled in calibration
- Henderson's elite K-rate could suppress MIL lineup more than projected
- PIT bullpen serviceable but not elite unlike MIL
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
MIL 52.2%
-0.9 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-0.9 pts
Total
7.5
+18.9 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.