ATL vs MIA prediction for September 26, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects MIA 4.1 - ATL 4.3. ATL is favored with a 50.8% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 8.4 total runs.
MIA
4.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
ATL
4.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
MIAATL
+1.5
Run Line (MIA)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 52.1% (4,034 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
ATL
246
MIA
246
Projected
MIA 4.1 — ATL 4.3
Actual
MIA 3 — ATL 8
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Brent Suter L
ATL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI34%89 mph10% whiff
CH27%76 mph34% whiff
FF26%88 mph17% whiff
Jack Ralston R
MIA
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FS52%82 mph22% whiff
FF26%94 mph14% whiff
SL22%85 mph10% whiff
Weather Impact
loanDepot park
84°F8 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.062 Total: 1.034
thin air, 6mph out
Bullpen Comparison
ATL
3.13ERA
3.43FIP
9.59K/9
2.99BB/9
1.12WHIP
MIA
4.31ERA
4.02FIP
9.86K/9
4.29BB/9
1.31WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
ATL F5
2.5 runs
44.5% win
MIA F5
2.3 runs
40.1% win
F5 Total
4.8
NRFI
50.8%
YRFI
49.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.07
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
ATL8 injured
Hurston Waldrep SP60-DAY-IL
Martin Perez SP15-DAY-IL
Lane Thomas LF10-DAY-IL
Reynaldo Lopez RP15-DAY-IL
Joe Jimenez RP60-DAY-IL
Bryce Elder SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
MIA8 injured
Kyle Stowers 1BDAY-TO-DAY
Xavier Edwards 2BDAY-TO-DAY
Tyler Zuber RP15-DAY-IL
Anthony Bender RP15-DAY-IL
Pete Fairbanks RP15-DAY-IL
Max Meyer SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.