STL vs MIL prediction for September 26, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects MIL 5.1 - STL 4.7. MIL is favored with a 57.6% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 9.8 total runs.
MIL
5.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
STL
4.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
MILSTL
-1.5
Run Line (MIL)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 59.5% (4,034 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
STL
357
MIL
357
Projected
MIL 5.1 — STL 4.7
Actual
MIL 3 — STL 2
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Quinn Mathews L
STL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF39%93 mph20% whiff
SL23%85 mph23% whiff
CH16%83 mph42% whiff
Dustin May R
MIL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF24%97 mph19% whiff
FC24%93 mph22% whiff
SI20%97 mph16% whiff
Weather Impact
American Family Field
61°F5 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 0.998 Total: 0.997
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
STL
4.42ERA
4.23FIP
8.54K/9
4.30BB/9
1.36WHIP
MIL
2.99ERA
3.38FIP
9.49K/9
3.45BB/9
1.18WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
STL F5
2.7 runs
40.6% win
MIL F5
3.0 runs
46.2% win
F5 Total
5.7
NRFI
49.1%
YRFI
50.9%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.23
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
STL5 injured
Blaze Jordan 3B10-DAY-IL
Joshua Baez LF10-DAY-IL
Everson Pereira RF10-DAY-IL
Hunter Dobbins SP15-DAY-IL
Max Rajcic RP60-DAY-IL
MIL7 injured
Joey Ortiz SSDAY-TO-DAY
Andrew Vaughn 1B10-DAY-IL
Grant Anderson RP15-DAY-IL
Brandon Woodruff SP60-DAY-IL
Brian Fitzpatrick RP60-DAY-IL
Quinn Priester SP60-DAY-IL
+1 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.