NYM vs WSH prediction for September 26, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects WSH 4.7 - NYM 4.4. WSH is favored with a 55.3% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 9.1 total runs.
WSH
4.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
NYM
4.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
WSHNYM
+1.5
Run Line (WSH)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.4% (4,034 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
NYM
246
WSH
357
Projected
WSH 4.7 — NYM 4.4
Actual
WSH 1 — NYM 7
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Jonah Tong R
NYM
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF44%95 mph22% whiff
CH25%87 mph30% whiff
FC22%91 mph22% whiff
Connelly Early L
WSH
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF35%94 mph22% whiff
SI20%92 mph9% whiff
CH18%84 mph22% whiff
Weather Impact
Nationals Park
70°F17 mph wind
HR: 0.947 Total: 0.967
14mph in
Bullpen Comparison
NYM
4.56ERA
4.48FIP
9.26K/9
3.88BB/9
1.36WHIP
WSH
5.68ERA
5.29FIP
8.77K/9
4.72BB/9
1.55WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
NYM F5
2.5 runs
40.0% win
WSH F5
2.7 runs
45.1% win
F5 Total
5.2
NRFI
50.8%
YRFI
49.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.10
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
NYM7 injured
Christian Scott SP15-DAY-IL
Jared Young 1B7-DAY IL
Daniel Duarte RP15-DAY-IL
Robert Stock RP15-DAY-IL
Jorge Polanco DH60-DAY-IL
Reed Garrett RP60-DAY-IL
+1 more
WSH7 injured
Connelly Early SP60-DAY-IL
Matt Waldron RP60-DAY-IL
Drew Millas C60-DAY-IL
Orlando Ribalta RP15-DAY-IL
PJ Poulin RP60-DAY-IL
Mitchell Parker RP60-DAY-IL
+1 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.