LAD vs SF prediction for September 26, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SF 2.4 - LAD 3.9. LAD is favored with a 71.8% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 6.3 total runs.
SF
2.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
LAD
3.9
Projected Score
Win Probability
SFLAD
+1.5
Run Line (SF)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 78.6% (4,034 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
LAD
246
SF
024
Projected
SF 2.4 — LAD 3.9
Actual
SF 3 — LAD 4
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Blake Snell L
LAD
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF49%96 mph21% whiff
CU22%80 mph41% whiff
CH18%85 mph41% whiff
Matt Wilkinson L
SF
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF58%90 mph16% whiff
CH22%84 mph27% whiff
SL14%79 mph13% whiff
Weather Impact
Oracle Park
68°F11 mph wind
HR: 1.067 Total: 1.038
10mph out
Bullpen Comparison
LAD
3.88ERA
3.79FIP
10.12K/9
3.92BB/9
1.25WHIP
SF
4.43ERA
4.54FIP
7.11K/9
4.32BB/9
1.47WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
LAD F5
2.0 runs
50.3% win
SF F5
1.3 runs
27.5% win
F5 Total
3.3
NRFI
63.0%
YRFI
37.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.71
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
LAD8 injured
Blake Snell SPDAY-TO-DAY
Will Klein RP60-DAY-IL
Edgardo Henriquez RP15-DAY-IL
Eric Lauer SP60-DAY-IL
Gavin Stone SP60-DAY-IL
Jake Cousins RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
SF8 injured
Blade Tidwell RP60-DAY-IL
Osleivis Basabe 2BDAY-TO-DAY
Landen Roupp SPOUT
Willy Adames SS10-DAY-IL
Bryce Eldridge DH7-DAY IL
Jung Hoo Lee RF10-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.