CLE vs KC prediction for September 26, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects KC 4.9 - CLE 4.7. KC is favored with a 55.0% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 9.6 total runs.
KC
4.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
CLE
4.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
KCCLE
+1.5
Run Line (KC)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.4% (4,034 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CLE
357
KC
357
Projected
KC 4.9 — CLE 4.7
Actual
KC 5 — CLE 11
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Tanner Bibee R
CLE
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FC24%86 mph30% whiff
FF24%94 mph13% whiff
SI20%93 mph14% whiff
Michael Wacha R
KC
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF28%93 mph17% whiff
CH25%81 mph25% whiff
FC15%89 mph14% whiff
Weather Impact
Kauffman Stadium
72°F6 mph wind
HR: 1.040 Total: 1.020
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
CLE
3.35ERA
3.71FIP
10.05K/9
3.73BB/9
1.23WHIP
KC
4.98ERA
4.87FIP
8.08K/9
4.73BB/9
1.55WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CLE F5
2.5 runs
38.0% win
KC F5
2.9 runs
47.2% win
F5 Total
5.3
NRFI
51.3%
YRFI
48.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.10
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
CLE2 injured
Colin Holderman RP15-DAY-IL
Rhys Hoskins 1B10-DAY-IL
KC8 injured
Nick Loftin 3BPATERNITY
Steven Cruz RPPATERNITY
Craig Kimbrel RPBEREAVEMENT
Connor Seabold RP60-DAY-IL
James McArthur RP60-DAY-IL
Beck Way RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.