FINAL: STL 2 — ATL 1. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected STL 3.0 - ATL 3.9 (ATL at 54.4% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 7.0 total runs.
STL
3.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
ATL
3.9
Projected Score
Win Probability
STLATL
+1.5
Run Line (STL)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
ATL L5STL W4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.7% (2,790 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
ATL
246
STL
135
Projected
STL 3.0 — ATL 3.9
Actual
STL 2 — ATL 1
Pick Results
ATL @ STL NRFInrfiWIN+0.43u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Chris Sale L
ATL
FF40%96 mph22% whiff
SL39%79 mph37% whiff
CH12%88 mph28% whiff
Kyle Leahy R
STL
FF28%94 mph14% whiff
CU16%83 mph25% whiff
SL16%89 mph19% whiff
Weather Impact
Busch Stadium
74°F12 mph wind
HR: 0.971 Total: 0.980
thin air, 12mph in
Bullpen Comparison
ATL
2.18ERA
2.83FIP
9.74K/9
2.51BB/9
1.00WHIP
STL
4.30ERA
4.29FIP
8.27K/9
4.08BB/9
1.36WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-41.4% EV
-128
TOTAL OVER 8.0
-20.6% EV
-110
TOTAL UNDER 8.0
+11.6% EV
-110
ML AWAY
-8.8% EV
-164
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-6.8% EV
+106
F5_ML HOME
-6.3% EV
+142
First 5 Innings & NRFI
ATL F5
2.3 runs
50.8% win
STL F5
1.6 runs
32.2% win
F5 Total
3.9
NRFI
55.2%
YRFI
44.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.89
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.0
Over 0.5 HR
85%
Over 1.5 HR
58%
No HR
15%
Matt Olson ATL30.0%
ISO: 0.283 | Barrel: 14.3% | vs Kyle Leahy | Park: 0.98x Platoon: 1.12x
Michael Harris II ATL30.0%
ISO: 0.227 | Barrel: 9.1% | vs Kyle Leahy | Park: 0.98x Platoon: 1.12x
Drake Baldwin ATL30.0%
ISO: 0.192 | Barrel: 11.0% | vs Kyle Leahy | Park: 0.98x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Chris Sale
0.0 K projected
ATL | K/9: 0.0
Kyle Leahy
0.0 K projected
STL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
ATL8 injured
Robert Suarez RP15-DAY-IL
AJ Smith-Shawver SP60-DAY-IL
Ronald Acuna Jr. RF10-DAY-IL
Martin Perez SP15-DAY-IL
Ha-Seong Kim SS10-DAY-IL
Spencer Schwellenbach SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
STL3 injured
Ryne Stanek RPDAY-TO-DAY
Max Rajcic RP60-DAY-IL
Ramon Urias 3B60-DAY-IL
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
ATL 54.4%
-41.4 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-41.4 pts
Total
8.0
+11.6 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →