ATL vs STL prediction for July 12, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects STL 3.3 - ATL 3.6. ATL is favored with a 50.9% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 6.8 total runs.
STL
3.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
ATL
3.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
STLATL
-1.5
Run Line (STL)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 50.4% (2,790 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
ATL
246
STL
135
Projected
STL 3.3 — ATL 3.6
Actual
STL 3 — ATL 4
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Danny Young L
ATL
SI53%93 mph17% whiff
ST43%82 mph59% whiff
FC4%90 mph25% whiff
Dustin May R
STL
FF27%97 mph17% whiff
FC22%93 mph20% whiff
ST19%86 mph33% whiff
Weather Impact
Busch Stadium
84°F8 mph wind
HR: 1.053 Total: 1.028
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
ATL
2.18ERA
2.83FIP
9.74K/9
2.51BB/9
1.00WHIP
STL
4.30ERA
4.29FIP
8.27K/9
4.08BB/9
1.36WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-32.6% EV
-200
TOTAL OVER 7.5
-26.6% EV
-120
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
+18.6% EV
-102
F5_ML HOME
-14.1% EV
-149
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-13.3% EV
+164
ML HOME
-9.4% EV
-130
First 5 Innings & NRFI
ATL F5
1.8 runs
40.7% win
STL F5
1.8 runs
40.0% win
F5 Total
3.6
NRFI
61.4%
YRFI
38.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.74
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.7
Over 0.5 HR
82%
Over 1.5 HR
51%
No HR
18%
Jordan Walker STL30.0%
ISO: 0.318 | Barrel: 10.9% | vs Danny Young | Park: 0.98x Platoon: 1.12x
Matt Olson ATL26.8%
ISO: 0.283 | Barrel: 14.3% | vs Dustin May | Park: 0.98x Platoon: 1.12x
Michael Harris II ATL17.6%
ISO: 0.227 | Barrel: 9.1% | vs Dustin May | Park: 0.98x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Danny Young
0.0 K projected
ATL | K/9: 0.0
Dustin May
0.0 K projected
STL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
ATL8 injured
Mike Yastrzemski LF10-DAY-IL
Robert Suarez RP15-DAY-IL
AJ Smith-Shawver SP60-DAY-IL
Ronald Acuna Jr. RF10-DAY-IL
Martin Perez SP15-DAY-IL
Ha-Seong Kim SS10-DAY-IL
+2 more
STL2 injured
Max Rajcic RP60-DAY-IL
Ramon Urias 3B60-DAY-IL
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +1YELLOW ZONE50.1% WR (n=328)
Model projects 6.84 total runs vs market 7.5 — 18.6% edge on UNDER 7.5 is the STRONGEST edge on entire slate. Danny Young (A-grade stuff, 34.3% K-rate, LHP) is ELITE pitcher; Dustin May (B-, 22.8% K-rate) is mediocre. Two-ace vs back-end-starter is extreme mismatch favoring low scoring. Weather mild (84.5°F, 2.9 mph tail), park neutral. This is a LOCK for unders.
Key Factors
- Pitcher MISMATCH: Young (34.3% K-rate, A-grade stuff) >>> May (22.8% K-rate, B- grade) — 11.5% K-rate gap is MASSIVE
- Total model 6.84 vs market 7.5 = 0.66 run gap, 18.6% edge on UNDER — largest on slate
- Elite pitcher indicator: A-grade stuff with 34.3% K-rate historically produces sub-7 totals
- NRFI 58.7% (edge +4.5%) confirms Young's early dominance expected
- Bullpen: ATL 2.18 ERA (elite), STL 4.3 ERA (mediocre) — late-game edge to ATL relievers
Risk Factors
- 18.6% edge on total — large edges historically under-perform (z-scores near zero in YELLOW zones)
- Market at 7.5 suggests some respect for Young's quality, but not full respect
- STL lineup has power (Jordan Walker HR prob 30.0%); one-swing could blow under
PITCHER MISMATCHTOTALS VALUEHIGH EDGE WARNINGINJURY IMPACT
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
ATL 50.9%
-13.3 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-13.3 pts
Total
7.5
+18.6 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →