PHI vs DET prediction for July 12, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects DET 3.5 - PHI 5.1. PHI is favored with a 57.3% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.0. Model projects 8.6 total runs.
DET
3.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.0
PHI
5.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
DETPHI
-1.5
Run Line (DET)
7.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 56.7% (2,790 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
PHI
357
DET
245
Projected
DET 3.5 — PHI 5.1
Actual
DET 0 — PHI 5
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Zack Wheeler R
PHI
FF36%95 mph24% whiff
SI16%95 mph7% whiff
ST15%81 mph39% whiff
Tarik Skubal L
DET
FF37%97 mph18% whiff
CH25%87 mph47% whiff
SI19%97 mph14% whiff
Weather Impact
Comerica Park
85°F7 mph wind
HR: 1.076 Total: 1.041
thin air, 7mph out
Bullpen Comparison
PHI
4.19ERA
3.22FIP
10.30K/9
3.17BB/9
1.34WHIP
DET
4.22ERA
4.23FIP
8.86K/9
4.10BB/9
1.37WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-26.5% EV
+188
F5_ML HOME
-26.5% EV
-135
TOTAL UNDER 7.0
-20.5% EV
-115
F5_ML AWAY
+20.1% EV
+108
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-17.9% EV
-227
ML HOME
-15.6% EV
-127
First 5 Innings & NRFI
PHI F5
2.7 runs
52.8% win
DET F5
1.9 runs
32.5% win
F5 Total
4.6
NRFI
56.1%
YRFI
43.9%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.97
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.2
Over 0.5 HR
89%
Over 1.5 HR
64%
No HR
11%
Kerry Carpenter DET27.3%
ISO: 0.270 | Barrel: 12.3% | vs Zack Wheeler | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Dillon Dingler DET25.5%
ISO: 0.294 | Barrel: 9.2% | vs Zack Wheeler | Park: 0.97x
Riley Greene DET25.1%
ISO: 0.155 | Barrel: 17.1% | vs Zack Wheeler | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Zack Wheeler
0.0 K projected
PHI | K/9: 0.0
Tarik Skubal
0.0 K projected
DET | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
PHI5 injured
Justin Crawford CFDAY-TO-DAY
Tanner Banks RP15-DAY-IL
Lou Trivino RP15-DAY-IL
Johan Rojas CF60-DAY-IL
Adolis Garcia RF60-DAY-IL
DET8 injured
Will Vest RP15-DAY-IL
Jackson Jobe SP60-DAY-IL
Justin Verlander SP60-DAY-IL
Wenceel Perez RF60-DAY-IL
Gleyber Torres 2B10-DAY-IL
Parker Meadows CF60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +1YELLOW ZONE44.9% WR (n=8)
Model projects 57.3% DET away win prob (huge underdog value), market implies 48.1% home (PHI -126). That's 10.0% edge on away PHI ML — one of the slate's strongest ML edges. Tarik Skubal (B+, 30.1% K-rate, 9.2 K/9) is ACE-tier pitcher; Zack Wheeler (B, 29.4% K-rate, 9.0 K/9) is elite but not quite Skubal's level. Model projects 5.13 PHI runs vs 3.46 DET, but Skubal's dominance should suppress both teams' scoring.
Key Factors
- Ace-level pitcher: Skubal (30.1% K-rate, B+, 9.2 K/9) is elite; Wheeler (29.4% K-rate, B, 9.0 K/9) is excellent but subordinate
- Model 57.3% PHI away vs market 48.1% = 10.0% edge, one of slate's best ML values
- F5_ML edge: 20.1% on PHI away (57.8%) — suggests early inning score likely favors PHI
- Total model 8.59 vs market 7.0 = 12.1% edge on OVER 7.0, secondary edge
- Lineups: PHI has quality lineup; DET also strong but Skubal's projection dominates
Risk Factors
- 10.0% edge is large; RED zone away ML (45.8% WR, z=-1.23) historically underperforms despite large edges
- Market may have information (bullpen fatigue, lineup changes) not reflected in sim
- Total edge 12.1% on OVER — YELLOW zone total shows only 50.1% WR, so overs edge is risky
PITCHER MISMATCHML VALUEHIGH EDGE WARNING
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
PHI 57.3%
-26.5 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-26.5 pts
Total
7.0
+12.1 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →