SEA vs TB prediction for July 12, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects TB 5.2 - SEA 3.3. TB is favored with a 60.0% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 8.5 total runs.
TB
5.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
SEA
3.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
TBSEA
-1.5
Run Line (TB)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 59.4% (2,790 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SEA
135
TB
357
Projected
TB 5.2 — SEA 3.3
Actual
TB 2 — SEA 8
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Emerson Hancock R
SEA
FF38%95 mph20% whiff
SI24%95 mph10% whiff
ST18%77 mph33% whiff
Ian Seymour L
TB
CH31%84 mph33% whiff
FF24%92 mph22% whiff
ST24%81 mph35% whiff
Weather Impact
Tropicana Field
88°F8 mph windRoof: closed
HR: 1.000 Total: 1.000
Indoor (neutral)
Bullpen Comparison
SEA
3.37ERA
3.72FIP
8.85K/9
3.64BB/9
1.33WHIP
TB
4.35ERA
4.16FIP
8.55K/9
3.50BB/9
1.33WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-52.8% EV
-192
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
+32.0% EV
+158
F5_ML AWAY
-28.6% EV
+112
F5_ML HOME
+13.4% EV
-141
ML AWAY
-9.5% EV
+118
TOTAL OVER 7.5
-5.9% EV
-122
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SEA F5
1.6 runs
25.8% win
TB F5
3.0 runs
59.7% win
F5 Total
4.6
NRFI
56.8%
YRFI
43.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.92
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.5
Over 0.5 HR
91%
Over 1.5 HR
70%
No HR
9%
Junior Caminero TB30.0%
ISO: 0.227 | Barrel: 14.0% | vs Emerson Hancock | Park: 0.92x
Jonathan Aranda TB22.7%
ISO: 0.228 | Barrel: 12.8% | vs Emerson Hancock | Park: 0.92x Platoon: 1.12x
Yandy Díaz TB18.3%
ISO: 0.083 | Barrel: 8.3% | vs Emerson Hancock | Park: 0.92x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Emerson Hancock
0.0 K projected
SEA | K/9: 0.0
Ian Seymour
0.0 K projected
TB | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
SEA8 injured
Julio Rodriguez CF7-DAY IL
Brendan Donovan 3B10-DAY-IL
Cooper Criswell RP60-DAY-IL
Rob Refsnyder DH10-DAY-IL
Carlos Vargas RP60-DAY-IL
Will Wilson 3B60-DAY-IL
+2 more
TB8 injured
Steven Wilson RP60-DAY-IL
Jesse Scholtens RP15-DAY-IL
Steven Matz SP15-DAY-IL
Edwin Uceta RP60-DAY-IL
Jake Fraley RF10-DAY-IL
Manuel Rodriguez RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +1YELLOW ZONE54.7% WR (n=16)
Model projects 60.0% TB home win prob, market implies 58.1% (TB -138). Slim 0.6% edge on home ML is not compelling. However, run line shows 32.0% edge on TB -1.5 (model 51.2% cover), and F5_ML edge is 13.4% on home. Ian Seymour (B, 28.7% K-rate, 9.7 K/9) clearly outclasses Emerson Hancock (B-, 23.6% K-rate, 8.5 K/9). This game is about TB covering the spread, not just winning outright.
Key Factors
- Pitcher gap: Seymour (28.7% K-rate, 9.7 K/9) > Hancock (23.6% K-rate, 8.5 K/9) — clear edge for TB
- Run line edge: 32.0% on TB -1.5 (model 51.2% cover) is MASSIVE edge, suggests market significantly undervalues TB dominance
- F5_ML edge: 13.4% on TB home (model 66.3%) — suggests early scoring gap favors TB
- Model spread: 1.94 run gap (5.22 vs 3.28) aligns with -1.5 run line covering ~51.2% time
- Weather: Dome (Tropicana Field) = neutral; no weather factor
Risk Factors
- Emerson Hancock DAY-TO-DAY hand injury — pending lineup confirmation. If TBD, entire edge evaporates.
- Run line edge 32.0% is extreme; suggests model may be overweighting pitcher advantage
- ML edge only 0.6% — spread is the real value, but spread bets show 53.9% historical WR (Grade B)
PITCHER MISMATCHML VALUEINJURY IMPACT
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
TB 60.0%
+32.0 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+32.0 pts
Total
7.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →