OAK vs CWS prediction for July 12, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CWS 5.4 - OAK 3.7. CWS is favored with a 59.7% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 9.1 total runs.
CWS
5.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
OAK
3.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
CWSOAK
-1.5
Run Line (CWS)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 59.4% (2,790 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
OAK
246
CWS
357
Projected
CWS 5.4 — OAK 3.7
Actual
CWS 9 — OAK 1
Starting Pitcher Matchup
J.T. Ginn R
OAK
SI35%94 mph21% whiff
CH19%88 mph30% whiff
FC18%90 mph20% whiff
Noah Schultz L
CWS
SI25%95 mph7% whiff
FF24%95 mph21% whiff
ST22%83 mph30% whiff
Weather Impact
Guaranteed Rate Field
80°F8 mph wind
HR: 1.073 Total: 1.040
thin air, 7mph out
Bullpen Comparison
OAK
4.87ERA
3.91FIP
9.81K/9
4.20BB/9
1.44WHIP
CWS
4.29ERA
4.67FIP
8.64K/9
4.97BB/9
1.34WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-49.4% EV
-182
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
+28.1% EV
+150
F5_ML AWAY
-19.1% EV
+100
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-11.3% EV
-118
ML AWAY
-8.2% EV
+122
F5_ML HOME
+7.8% EV
-123
First 5 Innings & NRFI
OAK F5
2.1 runs
33.0% win
CWS F5
3.0 runs
53.5% win
F5 Total
5.2
NRFI
51.0%
YRFI
49.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.08
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.4
Over 0.5 HR
90%
Over 1.5 HR
68%
No HR
10%
Jonah Heim OAK30.0%
ISO: 0.404 | Barrel: 6.1% | vs Noah Schultz | Park: 1.01x Platoon: 1.12x
Shea Langeliers OAK27.9%
ISO: 0.357 | Barrel: 11.0% | vs Noah Schultz | Park: 1.01x Platoon: 1.12x
Colson Montgomery CWS23.2%
ISO: 0.249 | Barrel: 14.4% | vs J.T. Ginn | Park: 1.01x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
J.T. Ginn
0.0 K projected
OAK | K/9: 0.0
Noah Schultz
0.0 K projected
CWS | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
OAK7 injured
Nick Kurtz 1B10-DAY-IL
Zack Gelof 3B10-DAY-IL
Brent Rooker DH10-DAY-IL
Denzel Clarke CF60-DAY-IL
Luis Severino SP60-DAY-IL
Brooks Kriske RP60-DAY-IL
+1 more
CWSHealthy
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEANYELLOW ZONE54.7% WR (n=16)
Model projects 59.7% CWS home win, market implies 59.2% (CWS -144). No edge on home ML (-0.9%). Run line edge 28.1% on CWS -1.5 (model 51.3% cover) is legitimate but not actionable given high edge threshold. Both pitchers mediocre (Noah Schultz C+ vs J.T. Ginn C+), so edge is less about pitcher skill and more about home field + park.
Key Factors
- Pitcher quality: Schultz (20.4% K-rate) vs Ginn (21.1% K-rate) — virtually identical, no SP advantage
- Home field: CWS +0.5 run edge from home, small park factor 1.0, mild weather favor
- Model spread: 1.65 runs (5.38 vs 3.73), explaining 59.7% home win prob
- Run line edge: 28.1% is large but spread zone shows 53.9% WR historically
- Bullpen: CWS 4.29 ERA (mediocre) vs OAK 4.87 ERA (poor) — slight CWS advantage
Risk Factors
- No pitcher mismatch — edge is purely home field bias
- 28.1% edge is extreme and likely model artifact (spread market only wins 53.9% even with large edges)
- Public may be on CWS home; no sharp action detected yet
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CWS 59.7%
+28.1 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+28.1 pts
Total
8.5
+2.0 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →