BOS vs NYM prediction for July 12, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects NYM 3.7 - BOS 3.8. NYM is favored with a 50.5% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 7.5 total runs.
NYM
3.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
BOS
3.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
NYMBOS
+1.5
Run Line (NYM)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 50.4% (2,790 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
BOS
246
NYM
246
Projected
NYM 3.7 — BOS 3.8
Actual
NYM 2 — BOS 3
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Payton Tolle L
BOS
FF48%96 mph24% whiff
SI23%95 mph9% whiff
FC18%88 mph23% whiff
Zach Thornton L
NYM
FC45%87 mph24% whiff
FF23%92 mph6% whiff
ST16%80 mph38% whiff
Weather Impact
Citi Field
86°F7 mph wind
HR: 1.007 Total: 1.002
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
BOS
3.90ERA
4.18FIP
9.00K/9
3.45BB/9
1.30WHIP
NYM
3.44ERA
3.69FIP
9.32K/9
3.58BB/9
1.21WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-35.0% EV
-185
TOTAL OVER 8.0
-16.1% EV
-114
TOTAL UNDER 8.0
+7.5% EV
-106
F5_ML AWAY
-7.5% EV
-128
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-7.3% EV
+152
F5 UNDER 4.5
+4.9% EV
-118
First 5 Innings & NRFI
BOS F5
2.0 runs
42.9% win
NYM F5
2.0 runs
40.4% win
F5 Total
4.0
NRFI
59.4%
YRFI
40.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.86
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.1
Over 0.5 HR
87%
Over 1.5 HR
60%
No HR
13%
Caleb Durbin BOS18.1%
ISO: 0.109 | Barrel: 4.0% | vs Zach Thornton | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Juan Soto NYM17.9%
ISO: 0.225 | Barrel: 18.1% | vs Payton Tolle | Park: 0.96x
Ceddanne Rafaela BOS16.1%
ISO: 0.246 | Barrel: 9.2% | vs Zach Thornton | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Payton Tolle
0.0 K projected
BOS | K/9: 0.0
Zach Thornton
0.0 K projected
NYM | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
BOS8 injured
Connelly Early SP15-DAY-IL
Willson Contreras 1BSUSPENSION
Ranger Suarez SP15-DAY-IL
Johan Oviedo SP60-DAY-IL
Tanner Houck SP60-DAY-IL
Trevor Story SS60-DAY-IL
+2 more
NYM8 injured
Bo Bichette SSDAY-TO-DAY
Clay Holmes SP60-DAY-IL
Mark Vientos 1B10-DAY-IL
Austin Warren RP15-DAY-IL
Marcus Semien 2B10-DAY-IL
Luis Robert Jr. CF60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEANYELLOW ZONE50.1% WR (n=328)
Model 7.45 total vs market 8.0 shows 7.5% UNDER edge, but Zach Thornton (LHP, B- stuff) vs Payton Tolle (LHP, B stuff) is a low-K mirror matchup (6.6 vs 9.2 K/9). Market correctly prices the split; modest under edge is real but not compelling.
Key Factors
- Total model 7.45 vs market 8.0 = 7.5% edge on UNDER — modest gap
- Pitcher comparison: Tolle (9.2 K/9, B) better than Thornton (6.6 K/9, B-), but both left-handers reduce strikeout mix vs typical
- NRFI 57.6% (edge +1.4%) validates low early scoring theme; late game could be tighter too
- Bullpen ERA: NYM 3.44 (good, n=1308), BOS 3.9 (mediocre) — slight NYM advantage
- Zone: YELLOW total (50.1% WR), which means 7.5% edge historically performs at ~50% WR in this zone
Risk Factors
- 7.5% edge is modest; YELLOW zone win rate 50.1% means no strong historical support
- Both teams in decent offensive tier; weather neutral means no weather edge
- LHP vs LHP matchup could boost platoon splits in unexpected ways (BOS has several LHH)
TOTALS VALUE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
NYM 50.5%
-35.0 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-35.0 pts
Total
8.0
+7.5 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →