NYY vs WSH prediction for July 12, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects WSH 5.5 - NYY 5.8. NYY is favored with a 50.3% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.5. Model projects 11.4 total runs.
WSH
5.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.5
NYY
5.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
WSHNYY
+1.5
Run Line (WSH)
9.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 47.7% (2,790 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
NYY
468
WSH
467
Projected
WSH 5.5 — NYY 5.8
Actual
WSH 3 — NYY 5
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Will Warren R
NYY
FF39%94 mph20% whiff
SI27%93 mph18% whiff
ST20%84 mph22% whiff
Cade Cavalli R
WSH
FF35%97 mph19% whiff
KC28%86 mph37% whiff
SI16%96 mph11% whiff
Weather Impact
Nationals Park
85°F8 mph wind
HR: 1.066 Total: 1.036
7mph out
Bullpen Comparison
NYY
3.36ERA
3.71FIP
8.80K/9
3.56BB/9
1.27WHIP
WSH
4.62ERA
4.93FIP
7.77K/9
4.06BB/9
1.38WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-32.3% EV
-179
TOTAL UNDER 9.5
-19.4% EV
-123
TOTAL OVER 9.5
+12.1% EV
+102
F5 OVER 4.5
+11.9% EV
-139
F5_ML HOME
-6.3% EV
-135
ML HOME
-6.2% EV
-116
First 5 Innings & NRFI
NYY F5
3.1 runs
41.2% win
WSH F5
3.4 runs
47.4% win
F5 Total
6.5
NRFI
46.1%
YRFI
53.9%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.26
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.2
Over 0.5 HR
96%
Over 1.5 HR
82%
No HR
4%
Ben Rice NYY30.0%
ISO: 0.347 | Barrel: 15.4% | vs Cade Cavalli | Platoon: 1.12x
James Wood WSH30.0%
ISO: 0.303 | Barrel: 16.3% | vs Will Warren | Platoon: 1.12x
CJ Abrams WSH23.7%
ISO: 0.253 | Barrel: 7.6% | vs Will Warren | Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Will Warren
0.0 K projected
NYY | K/9: 0.0
Cade Cavalli
0.0 K projected
WSH | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
NYY5 injured
Clarke Schmidt SP60-DAY-IL
Giancarlo Stanton DH10-DAY-IL
Aaron Judge RF10-DAY-IL
Carlos Rodon SP15-DAY-IL
Max Fried SP15-DAY-IL
WSH8 injured
Miles Mikolas SPSUSPENSION
Brad Lord RP15-DAY-IL
Trevor Williams SP60-DAY-IL
Jake Irvin SP15-DAY-IL
Mitchell Parker RP60-DAY-IL
Richard Lovelady RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE50.1% WR (n=328)
Model projects 11.37 total runs vs market 9.5 — 12.1% edge on OVER 9.5 is legitimate, driven by high-scoring lineups (Yankees 5.85 rAA, Nationals 5.52 rAA) and mediocre SP profiles (Cavalli 4.19 ERA, Warren 4.48 ERA). Weather hot (85.1°F, 7.2 mph out) adds 3.6% run multiplier. Both teams in upper tier of scoring.
Key Factors
- Total model 11.37 vs market 9.5 = 1.87 run gap at 12.1% edge
- Lineups: WSH lineup strong, NYY missing Judge/Stanton but still capable (5.85 projected)
- Pitchers mediocre: Both B/B- grade, K/9 identical at 8.0, walk rates similar — no pitcher advantage
- Weather: 85.1°F + 7.2 mph out wind = +3.6% run multiplier, adding ~0.3 runs to model
- F5 projection: 6.47 F5 runs mean vs 4.5 line = 11.9% edge on F5 OVER 4.5, second-best F5 edge on slate
Risk Factors
- Injury mitigation matters: Judge out reduces NYY ceiling, but not priced in market
- 12.1% edge >10% threshold; historical data shows these edges under-perform (z-scores near zero)
- WSH bullpen 4.62 ERA is below-average; late-game deterioration could limit scoring
TOTALS VALUEWEATHER IMPACTINJURY IMPACTHIGH EDGE WARNING
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
NYY 50.3%
-32.3 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-32.3 pts
Total
9.5
+12.1 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →