FINAL: MIA 2 — CLE 5. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected MIA 4.6 - CLE 3.1 (MIA at 58.7% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 7.7 total runs.
MIA
4.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
CLE
3.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
MIACLE
+1.5
Run Line (MIA)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
CLE W4MIA
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.8% (2,790 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CLE
135
MIA
357
Projected
MIA 4.6 — CLE 3.1
Actual
MIA 2 — CLE 5
Pick Results
CLE @ MIA NRFInrfiLOSS-0.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Joey Cantillo L
CLE
FF37%92 mph14% whiff
CH27%81 mph38% whiff
CU25%80 mph36% whiff
Tyler Phillips R
MIA
SI26%96 mph3% whiff
ST24%84 mph33% whiff
FS23%87 mph30% whiff
Weather Impact
loanDepot park
88°F6 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.062 Total: 1.034
thin air, 6mph out
Bullpen Comparison
CLE
3.52ERA
3.55FIP
10.51K/9
3.50BB/9
1.23WHIP
MIA
3.85ERA
3.56FIP
9.97K/9
4.48BB/9
1.21WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-32.9% EV
+158
F5_ML AWAY
-29.5% EV
-118
F5_ML HOME
+20.1% EV
-106
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-16.1% EV
-192
TOTAL OVER 7.5
-13.9% EV
-115
ML AWAY
-13.5% EV
-106
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CLE F5
1.6 runs
28.3% win
MIA F5
2.6 runs
55.6% win
F5 Total
4.2
NRFI
56.8%
YRFI
43.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.89
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.2
Over 0.5 HR
89%
Over 1.5 HR
64%
No HR
11%
Heriberto Hernández MIA26.9%
ISO: 0.109 | Barrel: 10.9% | vs Joey Cantillo | Park: 0.93x Platoon: 1.12x
Esteury Ruiz MIA23.6%
ISO: 0.367 | Barrel: 7.7% | vs Joey Cantillo | Park: 0.93x Platoon: 1.12x
Otto Lopez MIA15.4%
ISO: 0.179 | Barrel: 7.1% | vs Joey Cantillo | Park: 0.93x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Joey Cantillo
0.0 K projected
CLE | K/9: 0.0
Tyler Phillips
0.0 K projected
MIA | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
CLE3 injured
Tim Herrin RP15-DAY-IL
Jose Ramirez 3B10-DAY-IL
Angel Martinez LF10-DAY-IL
MIA8 injured
Owen Caissie RF10-DAY-IL
John King RP15-DAY-IL
Anthony Bender RP15-DAY-IL
Josh Ekness RP60-DAY-IL
Andrew Nardi RP60-DAY-IL
Robby Snelling SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +1YELLOW ZONE54.7% WR (n=16)
Model projects 58.7% CLE win (huge), market implies 52.4% home (MIA at -109). That's 5.8% edge on CLE ML despite road team status. Joey Cantillo (B-, 8.4 K/9, strong curveball) vastly outclasses Tyler Phillips (C+, 7.7 K/9, mediocre arsenal). CLE projected to score 3.1 runs (low) but MIA only 4.59, a rare case where visitor is more likely to win at home.
Key Factors
- Pitcher mismatch: Cantillo (B-, 23.9% K-rate, 8.4 K/9) >> Phillips (C+, 17.6% K-rate, 7.7 K/9) — K-rate gap 0.7 is large
- Model 58.7% CLE win vs market 52.4% MIA = 5.8% edge on CLE as underdog (rare value)
- F5_ML edge: 20.1% on CLE (model 61.9%) is ELITE edge, suggests early inning value even higher
- Road team projection: CLE 3.1 runs vs MIA 4.59 is unusual (away < home); suggests pitcher dominance is extreme
- Weather: Hot (88.1°F) + 6 mph out + retractable roof = +3.4% multiplier; helps scoring but Cantillo's K-dominance overwhelming
Risk Factors
- 5.8% edge on away ML — RED zone (45.8% WR) historically makes away bets risky despite edge
- Projecting away team to score fewer runs at home is model artifact; suspect model is overweighting pitcher quality vs lineup factors
- MIA bullpen (3.85 ERA, above average) is competent; CLE bullpen (3.52 ERA) only slight edge
PITCHER MISMATCHML VALUE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
MIA 58.7%
-16.1 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-16.1 pts
Total
7.5
+5.3 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →