BAL vs STL prediction for August 25, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects STL 3.9 - BAL 5.0. BAL is favored with a 55.5% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 8.8 total runs.
STL
3.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
BAL
5.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
STLBAL
-1.5
Run Line (STL)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 61.6% (3,503 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
BAL
357
STL
246
Projected
STL 3.9 — BAL 5.0
Actual
STL 1 — BAL 13
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Chris Bassitt R
BAL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI36%92 mph12% whiff
CU23%71 mph28% whiff
FC21%90 mph19% whiff
Matthew Liberatore L
STL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF31%94 mph11% whiff
SL24%86 mph35% whiff
CU17%80 mph38% whiff
Weather Impact
Busch Stadium
88°F5 mph wind
HR: 1.034 Total: 1.016
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
BAL
4.27ERA
3.87FIP
8.63K/9
3.67BB/9
1.32WHIP
STL
4.48ERA
4.42FIP
7.84K/9
4.21BB/9
1.37WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
BAL F5
2.6 runs
49.3% win
STL F5
2.0 runs
33.8% win
F5 Total
4.6
NRFI
56.4%
YRFI
43.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.92
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
BAL8 injured
Felix Bautista RP60-DAY-IL
Blaze Alexander 3B10-DAY-IL
Ryan Helsley RP60-DAY-IL
Colin Selby RP60-DAY-IL
Ryan Mountcastle 1B60-DAY-IL
Keegan Akin RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
STL5 injured
Masyn Winn SS10-DAY-IL
Everson Pereira RF10-DAY-IL
Hunter Dobbins SP15-DAY-IL
Andre Pallante SP15-DAY-IL
Max Rajcic RP60-DAY-IL
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.