LAD vs ATL prediction for August 25, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects ATL 4.8 - LAD 4.4. ATL is favored with a 53.3% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 9.2 total runs.
ATL
4.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
LAD
4.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
ATLLAD
+1.5
Run Line (ATL)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 56.7% (3,503 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
LAD
246
ATL
357
Projected
ATL 4.8 — LAD 4.4
Actual
ATL 4 — LAD 3
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Tyler Glasnow R
LAD
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF30%95 mph12% whiff
KC23%80 mph51% whiff
SI22%96 mph19% whiff
Bryce Elder R
ATL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI28%91 mph11% whiff
SL24%83 mph27% whiff
FF22%92 mph14% whiff
Weather Impact
Truist Park
90°F7 mph wind
HR: 1.091 Total: 1.048
thin air, 7mph out
Bullpen Comparison
LAD
4.00ERA
3.91FIP
10.17K/9
4.21BB/9
1.27WHIP
ATL
2.81ERA
3.19FIP
9.93K/9
3.00BB/9
1.09WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
LAD F5
2.5 runs
38.7% win
ATL F5
2.8 runs
47.2% win
F5 Total
5.3
NRFI
48.9%
YRFI
51.1%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.09
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
LAD8 injured
Will Smith C60-DAY-IL
Jake Cousins RP60-DAY-IL
Andy Pages CF10-DAY-IL
Justin Wrobleski SP15-DAY-IL
Edwin Diaz RP15-DAY-IL
Will Klein RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
ATL7 injured
Joe Jimenez RP60-DAY-IL
Reynaldo Lopez RP15-DAY-IL
Robert Suarez RP15-DAY-IL
Spencer Schwellenbach SP60-DAY-IL
Spencer Strider SP60-DAY-IL
Jurickson Profar LFSUSPENSION
+1 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.