TEX vs CWS prediction for August 25, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CWS 4.6 - TEX 5.0. TEX is favored with a 51.4% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 9.6 total runs.
CWS
4.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
TEX
5.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
CWSTEX
+1.5
Run Line (CWS)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 52.3% (3,503 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TEX
357
CWS
357
Projected
CWS 4.6 — TEX 5.0
Actual
CWS 11 — TEX 7
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Jacob deGrom R
TEX
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF42%97 mph23% whiff
SL37%91 mph37% whiff
CH13%90 mph44% whiff
Anthony Kay L
CWS
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF23%96 mph17% whiff
ST22%83 mph36% whiff
FC18%92 mph19% whiff
Weather Impact
Rate Field
76°F8 mph wind
HR: 0.994 Total: 0.994
thin air, 8mph in
Bullpen Comparison
TEX
4.18ERA
4.32FIP
8.56K/9
3.74BB/9
1.32WHIP
CWS
4.23ERA
4.39FIP
9.14K/9
4.42BB/9
1.36WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TEX F5
2.9 runs
45.2% win
CWS F5
2.7 runs
40.6% win
F5 Total
5.5
NRFI
51.6%
YRFI
48.4%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.05
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
TEX8 injured
Robert Garcia RP60-DAY-IL
Kyle Higashioka C10-DAY-IL
Josh Jung 3B10-DAY-IL
Jack Leiter SP60-DAY-IL
Nathan Eovaldi SP15-DAY-IL
Jose Corniell RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
CWSHealthy
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.