MIL vs NYM prediction for August 25, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects NYM 3.1 - MIL 4.0. MIL is favored with a 56.1% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 7.1 total runs.
NYM
3.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
MIL
4.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
NYMMIL
+1.5
Run Line (NYM)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 61.6% (3,503 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIL
246
NYM
135
Projected
NYM 3.1 — MIL 4.0
Actual
NYM 3 — MIL 2
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Kyle Harrison L
MIL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF58%95 mph28% whiff
SV30%82 mph29% whiff
CH9%86 mph21% whiff
Zac Thornton L
NYM
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FC30%88 mph17% whiff
FF25%92 mph15% whiff
ST14%80 mph27% whiff
Weather Impact
Citi Field
75°F7 mph wind
HR: 1.032 Total: 1.017
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
MIL
3.26ERA
3.54FIP
9.23K/9
3.63BB/9
1.23WHIP
NYM
4.20ERA
4.25FIP
9.39K/9
4.19BB/9
1.37WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
MIL F5
2.1 runs
45.9% win
NYM F5
1.7 runs
34.4% win
F5 Total
3.8
NRFI
62.7%
YRFI
37.3%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.72
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
MIL8 injured
JoJo Romero RP15-DAY-IL
Abner Uribe RP15-DAY-IL
Garrett Mitchell CFDAY-TO-DAY
Brandon Woodruff SP60-DAY-IL
Joel Kuhnel RP15-DAY-IL
Rob Zastryzny RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
NYM8 injured
Jorge Polanco DH10-DAY-IL
Mark Vientos 1B10-DAY-IL
Justin Hagenman RP60-DAY-IL
Juan Soto LF10-DAY-IL
Devin Williams RP15-DAY-IL
Cionel Perez RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.