TB vs DET prediction for August 25, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects DET 4.7 - TB 5.7. TB is favored with a 55.1% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 10.4 total runs.
DET
4.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
TB
5.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
DETTB
+1.5
Run Line (DET)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 59.2% (3,529 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TB
468
DET
357
Projected
DET 4.7 — TB 5.7
Actual
DET 4 — TB 1
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Casey Legumina R
TB
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF42%93 mph20% whiff
SI21%93 mph12% whiff
SL12%85 mph19% whiff
Jackson Jobe R
DET
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF40%98 mph14% whiff
SL24%90 mph18% whiff
SI15%96 mph17% whiff
Weather Impact
Comerica Park
79°F9 mph wind
HR: 0.999 Total: 0.997
thin air, 7mph in
Bullpen Comparison
TB
3.84ERA
4.10FIP
8.73K/9
2.75BB/9
1.19WHIP
DET
4.37ERA
4.71FIP
8.45K/9
4.29BB/9
1.35WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TB F5
3.4 runs
52.5% win
DET F5
2.6 runs
35.1% win
F5 Total
6.1
NRFI
45.9%
YRFI
54.1%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.26
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
TB8 injured
Griffin Jax SP15-DAY-IL
Cole Sulser RP15-DAY-IL
Edwin Uceta RP60-DAY-IL
Jake Fraley RF60-DAY-IL
Gavin Lux LF60-DAY-IL
Ben Williamson 2B10-DAY-IL
+2 more
DET8 injured
Riley Greene LF10-DAY-IL
Jack Flaherty SP15-DAY-IL
Brant Hurter RP60-DAY-IL
Kerry Carpenter RF10-DAY-IL
Wenceel Perez RF60-DAY-IL
Will Vest RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.