BAL vs TB prediction for August 17, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects TB 3.5 - BAL 3.6. TB is favored with a 50.7% win probability. TB wins more simulations despite the lower average score. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 7.1 total runs.
TB
3.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
BAL
3.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
TBBAL
-1.5
Run Line (TB)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 51.6% (3,320 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
BAL
246
TB
245
Projected
TB 3.5 — BAL 3.6
Actual
TB 7 — BAL 6
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Brandon Young R
BAL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF40%94 mph19% whiff
FS20%84 mph23% whiff
SL15%84 mph41% whiff
Shane McClanahan L
TB
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF38%96 mph14% whiff
CH29%87 mph37% whiff
SL19%88 mph28% whiff
Weather Impact
Tropicana Field
89°F10 mph windRoof: closed
HR: 1.000 Total: 1.000
Indoor (neutral)
Bullpen Comparison
BAL
4.37ERA
3.94FIP
8.62K/9
3.72BB/9
1.33WHIP
TB
3.88ERA
3.90FIP
8.97K/9
2.80BB/9
1.17WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
BAL F5
2.1 runs
44.5% win
TB F5
1.9 runs
37.4% win
F5 Total
4.0
NRFI
59.2%
YRFI
40.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.82
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
BAL8 injured
Felix Bautista RP60-DAY-IL
Samuel Basallo C10-DAY-IL
Blaze Alexander 3B10-DAY-IL
Ryan Helsley RP60-DAY-IL
Colin Selby RP60-DAY-IL
Ryan Mountcastle 1B60-DAY-IL
+2 more
TB8 injured
Manuel Rodriguez RP60-DAY-IL
Cole Sulser RP15-DAY-IL
Edwin Uceta RP60-DAY-IL
Jake Fraley RF60-DAY-IL
Griffin Jax SP15-DAY-IL
Gavin Lux LF60-DAY-IL
+2 more
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.