SD vs NYM prediction for August 17, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects NYM 3.2 - SD 3.8. SD is favored with a 53.6% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 7.0 total runs.
NYM
3.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
SD
3.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
NYMSD
-1.5
Run Line (NYM)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.1% (3,320 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SD
246
NYM
135
Projected
NYM 3.2 — SD 3.8
Actual
NYM 2 — SD 1
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Walker Buehler R
SD
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FC24%90 mph18% whiff
FF20%94 mph11% whiff
SI18%94 mph8% whiff
Nolan McLean R
NYM
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI32%95 mph12% whiff
FF21%96 mph26% whiff
CU14%82 mph36% whiff
Weather Impact
Citi Field
76°F7 mph wind
HR: 0.991 Total: 0.993
7mph in
Bullpen Comparison
SD
3.12ERA
3.65FIP
9.64K/9
3.74BB/9
1.21WHIP
NYM
4.32ERA
4.35FIP
9.21K/9
4.25BB/9
1.40WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SD F5
1.8 runs
38.8% win
NYM F5
1.9 runs
40.6% win
F5 Total
3.7
NRFI
65.8%
YRFI
34.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.66
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
SD8 injured
Jason Adam RP60-DAY-IL
Miguel Andujar DH10-DAY-IL
Samad Taylor LF10-DAY-IL
Joe Musgrove SP60-DAY-IL
Nick Pivetta SP60-DAY-IL
Lucas Giolito SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
NYM8 injured
Juan Soto LF10-DAY-IL
Mark Vientos 1B10-DAY-IL
Devin Williams RP15-DAY-IL
Cionel Perez RP15-DAY-IL
Austin Warren RP15-DAY-IL
Justin Hagenman RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.