ARI vs BOS prediction for August 17, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects BOS 5.3 - ARI 5.9. ARI is favored with a 53.0% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 11.2 total runs.
BOS
5.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
ARI
5.9
Projected Score
Win Probability
BOSARI
-1.5
Run Line (BOS)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.8% (3,320 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
ARI
468
BOS
357
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Mitch Bratt L
ARI
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF40%91 mph12% whiff
SV25%80 mph16% whiff
SL11%87 mph27% whiff
Alec Gamboa L
BOS
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF50%96 mph15% whiff
SL33%89 mph19% whiff
SI12%95 mph15% whiff
Weather Impact
Fenway Park
69°F7 mph wind
HR: 0.988 Total: 0.991
7mph in
Bullpen Comparison
ARI
3.59ERA
3.70FIP
7.75K/9
3.08BB/9
1.19WHIP
BOS
3.35ERA
3.50FIP
9.52K/9
3.07BB/9
1.22WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
ARI F5
3.4 runs
45.7% win
BOS F5
3.2 runs
42.4% win
F5 Total
6.6
NRFI
49.4%
YRFI
50.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.19
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
ARI8 injured
Jordan Lawlar LF10-DAY-IL
Nolan Arenado 3BDAY-TO-DAY
Blake Walston SP60-DAY-IL
Ryan Thompson RP15-DAY-IL
Justin Martinez RP60-DAY-IL
Zac Gallen SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
BOS8 injured
Trevor Story SS60-DAY-IL
Justin Slaten RP15-DAY-IL
Masataka Yoshida DH10-DAY-IL
Isiah Kiner-Falefa 2B60-DAY-IL
Roman Anthony LF60-DAY-IL
Garrett Whitlock RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.