MIA vs PHI prediction for August 17, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects PHI 4.6 - MIA 4.2. PHI is favored with a 55.6% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 8.8 total runs.
PHI
4.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
MIA
4.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
PHIMIA
-1.5
Run Line (PHI)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 61.6% (3,320 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIA
246
PHI
357
Projected
PHI 4.6 — MIA 4.2
Actual
PHI 6 — MIA 5
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Janson Junk R
MIA
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF36%94 mph9% whiff
SL21%86 mph11% whiff
CH18%87 mph23% whiff
Cristopher Sánchez L
PHI
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI43%95 mph10% whiff
CH37%87 mph44% whiff
SL20%86 mph43% whiff
Weather Impact
Citizens Bank Park
86°F2 mph wind
HR: 1.032 Total: 1.016
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
MIA
4.07ERA
3.89FIP
9.77K/9
4.08BB/9
1.25WHIP
PHI
4.32ERA
3.77FIP
10.43K/9
3.60BB/9
1.34WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
MIA F5
2.1 runs
36.3% win
PHI F5
2.6 runs
47.5% win
F5 Total
4.7
NRFI
54.4%
YRFI
45.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.91
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
MIA8 injured
Anthony Bender RP15-DAY-IL
Max Meyer SP15-DAY-IL
William Kempner RP15-DAY-IL
Kyle Stowers 1B10-DAY-IL
Andrew Nardi RP60-DAY-IL
Robby Snelling SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
PHI7 injured
Derek Hill CFDAY-TO-DAY
Tanner Banks RP60-DAY-IL
Rafael Marchan C10-DAY-IL
Caleb Kilian RP15-DAY-IL
Brad Keller RP60-DAY-IL
Johan Rojas CF60-DAY-IL
+1 more
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.