LAD vs COL prediction for August 17, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects COL 7.7 - LAD 8.7. LAD is favored with a 54.1% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 10.5. Model projects 16.4 total runs.
COL
7.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 10.5
LAD
8.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
COLLAD
+1.5
Run Line (COL)
10.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.1% (3,320 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
LAD
7911
COL
6810
Projected
COL 7.7 — LAD 8.7
Actual
COL 5 — LAD 11
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Eric Lauer L
LAD
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF42%91 mph16% whiff
FC22%88 mph17% whiff
CH16%85 mph12% whiff
Ryan Feltner R
COL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF28%95 mph11% whiff
SL24%89 mph27% whiff
CH16%85 mph43% whiff
Weather Impact
Coors Field
93°F5 mph wind
HR: 1.142 Total: 1.071
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
LAD
3.89ERA
3.87FIP
10.26K/9
4.27BB/9
1.26WHIP
COL
4.91ERA
4.33FIP
7.56K/9
3.90BB/9
1.50WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
LAD F5
5.1 runs
49.2% win
COL F5
4.7 runs
42.5% win
F5 Total
9.8
NRFI
34.5%
YRFI
65.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.87
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
LAD8 injured
Will Smith C60-DAY-IL
Brock Stewart RP15-DAY-IL
Justin Wrobleski SP15-DAY-IL
Tyler Glasnow SP60-DAY-IL
Dalton Rushing C10-DAY-IL
Gavin Stone SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
COL8 injured
Hunter Goodman CDAY-TO-DAY
Jose Quintana SP60-DAY-IL
Kyle Karros 3B7-DAY IL
Tyler Freeman RF10-DAY-IL
Jaden Hill RP15-DAY-IL
Chase Dollander SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.