BOS vs OAK prediction for July 28, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects OAK 3.8 - BOS 4.1. BOS is favored with a 50.2% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 10.0. Model projects 7.9 total runs.
OAK
3.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 10.0
BOS
4.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
OAKBOS
+1.5
Run Line (OAK)
10.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 48.2% (2,978 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
BOS
246
OAK
246
Projected
OAK 3.8 — BOS 4.1
Actual
OAK 4 — BOS 3
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Patrick Sandoval L
BOS
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SL30%87 mph21% whiff
FF27%94 mph6% whiff
CH24%84 mph32% whiff
Jacob Lopez L
OAK
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF36%90 mph15% whiff
SL32%77 mph25% whiff
FC19%86 mph24% whiff
Weather Impact
Sutter Health Park
94°F10 mph wind
HR: 1.048 Total: 1.024
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
BOS
3.90ERA
4.18FIP
9.00K/9
3.45BB/9
1.30WHIP
OAK
4.87ERA
3.91FIP
9.81K/9
4.20BB/9
1.44WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
BOS F5
2.1 runs
41.6% win
OAK F5
2.0 runs
39.7% win
F5 Total
4.1
NRFI
60.9%
YRFI
39.1%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.77
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
BOS8 injured
Curtis Mead 3B10-DAY-IL
Marcelo Mayer 2B10-DAY-IL
Garrett Crochet SP60-DAY-IL
Zack Kelly RP60-DAY-IL
Trevor Story SS60-DAY-IL
Isiah Kiner-Falefa 2B10-DAY-IL
+2 more
OAK8 injured
Shea Langeliers C10-DAY-IL
J.T. Ginn SP15-DAY-IL
Luis Severino SP60-DAY-IL
Zack Gelof 3B10-DAY-IL
Jeffrey Springs SPDAY-TO-DAY
Mark Leiter Jr. RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +1
MASSIVE UNDER edge: 32.0% (model 67.7% under prob vs market ~35% implied). Jacob Lopez (C+ grade, 6.8 K/9) vs Patrick Sandoval (B- grade, 0 K-rate data, B+ command 0.776). Sandoval's elite command (0.776) + Oakland cool weather (94F but inland park Sutter Health) + market total 10.0 (very high) creates huge suppression edge. Model projects 7.93 total vs 10.0 market = 2.07pt UNDER edge. F5 UNDER 5.5 edge 17.4% (62.8% model prob).
Key Factors
- PITCHER MISMATCH: Sandoval B- grade (0.492 overall score) with ELITE command (B+, 0.776) vs Lopez C+ (0.332), weak K/command. Sandoval's command suppresses runs regardless of K-rate.
- UNDER 10.0 edge 32.0% is the biggest edge on the slate, but historical support WARNING: 32% edge is historically mixed. This is the HIGH-EDGE TRAP exemplified. Recent 15%+ picks are 0-3.
- Market total 10.0 is HIGH — suggests OAK is overpriced as over team. Cool weather (94F, low humidity 24%) supports UNDER. Park factor 1.024 is modest inflate, not strong.
- F5 UNDER 5.5 edge 17.4% (62.8% model) — early-inning suppression by Sandoval's command is real. NRFI 26.3% edge (56.4% model) — run suppression starts immediately.
Risk Factors
- HIGH-EDGE TRAP: 32% edge places this in the most dangerous category. Recent 15%+ edge picks are 0-3 W-L. Model is systemically overconfident at extreme edges.
- UNDER betting is DISABLED in system (a supportive track record, grade F). You are betting against calibration recommendation.
- Patrick Sandoval's 0 K-rate data is missing from pitcher profiles — suggests incomplete stats or returning from injury. Unknown if he's at full health.
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →