BOS vs TEX prediction for September 15, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects TEX 4.5 - BOS 3.7. TEX is favored with a 62.6% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 8.3 total runs.
TEX
4.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
BOS
3.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
TEXBOS
-1.5
Run Line (TEX)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 72.3% (3,932 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
BOS
246
TEX
346
Projected
TEX 4.5 — BOS 3.7
Actual
TEX 4 — BOS 2
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Patrick Sandoval L
BOS
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
CH26%84 mph40% whiff
SL23%87 mph24% whiff
FF22%94 mph11% whiff
Jacob deGrom R
TEX
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF42%97 mph23% whiff
SL36%91 mph38% whiff
CH13%90 mph46% whiff
Weather Impact
Globe Life Field
96°F10 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.067 Total: 1.034
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
BOS
3.05ERA
3.30FIP
9.86K/9
3.03BB/9
1.20WHIP
TEX
4.34ERA
4.48FIP
8.45K/9
3.76BB/9
1.33WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
BOS F5
1.9 runs
30.8% win
TEX F5
2.9 runs
53.5% win
F5 Total
4.8
NRFI
53.3%
YRFI
46.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.01
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
BOS8 injured
Anthony Seigler 2B10-DAY-IL
Johan Oviedo SP60-DAY-IL
Tanner Houck SP60-DAY-IL
Garrett Crochet SP60-DAY-IL
Eli White CF10-DAY-IL
Justin Slaten RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
TEX8 injured
Cal Quantrill RPDAY-TO-DAY
Joc Pederson DHDAY-TO-DAY
Jack Leiter SP60-DAY-IL
Kyle Higashioka C10-DAY-IL
Cole Winn RP15-DAY-IL
Peyton Gray RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.