CIN vs SF prediction for August 25, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SF 3.8 - CIN 4.0. CIN is favored with a 50.4% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 7.8 total runs.
SF
3.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
CIN
4.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
SFCIN
+1.5
Run Line (SF)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 48.4% (3,529 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CIN
246
SF
246
Projected
SF 3.8 — CIN 4.0
Actual
SF 3 — CIN 1
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Brady Singer R
CIN
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI50%91 mph15% whiff
SL26%83 mph29% whiff
ST15%82 mph38% whiff
Adrian Houser R
SF
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI46%95 mph7% whiff
FF21%96 mph17% whiff
CH16%85 mph34% whiff
Weather Impact
Oracle Park
67°F16 mph wind
HR: 1.089 Total: 1.051
15mph out
Bullpen Comparison
CIN
4.13ERA
4.69FIP
9.02K/9
4.92BB/9
1.38WHIP
SF
4.63ERA
4.49FIP
7.33K/9
4.51BB/9
1.47WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CIN F5
2.0 runs
41.0% win
SF F5
2.0 runs
40.6% win
F5 Total
4.1
NRFI
60.3%
YRFI
39.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.80
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
CIN6 injured
Graham Ashcraft RP60-DAY-IL
Brandon Williamson SP60-DAY-IL
Michael Toglia 1B10-DAY-IL
Spencer Steer 1B10-DAY-IL
Hunter Greene SP60-DAY-IL
Blake Dunn CF60-DAY-IL
SF8 injured
Carson Whisenhunt SPDAY-TO-DAY
Jesus Rodriguez C10-DAY-IL
Matt Gage RP60-DAY-IL
JT Brubaker RP15-DAY-IL
Victor Bericoto LF10-DAY-IL
Bryce Eldridge DHBEREAVEMENT
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.