CLE vs LAA prediction for August 25, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects LAA 4.0 - CLE 3.6. LAA is favored with a 53.5% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.0. Model projects 7.5 total runs.
LAA
4.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.0
CLE
3.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
LAACLE
+1.5
Run Line (LAA)
7.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.9% (3,529 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CLE
246
LAA
246
Projected
LAA 4.0 — CLE 3.6
Actual
LAA 6 — CLE 8
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Gavin Williams R
CLE
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
ST28%88 mph41% whiff
FF26%97 mph26% whiff
CU22%83 mph28% whiff
Walbert Ureña R
LAA
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
CH32%91 mph34% whiff
SI31%98 mph17% whiff
FF21%98 mph20% whiff
Weather Impact
Angel Stadium
89°F6 mph wind
HR: 1.073 Total: 1.039
thin air, 6mph out
Bullpen Comparison
CLE
3.50ERA
3.83FIP
9.98K/9
3.87BB/9
1.25WHIP
LAA
3.84ERA
4.24FIP
9.44K/9
3.79BB/9
1.30WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CLE F5
2.0 runs
37.9% win
LAA F5
2.3 runs
45.1% win
F5 Total
4.4
NRFI
56.3%
YRFI
43.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.88
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
CLE4 injured
Slade Cecconi SP15-DAY-IL
Chase DeLauter RFDAY-TO-DAY
Rhys Hoskins 1B10-DAY-IL
Shawn Armstrong RP60-DAY-IL
LAA8 injured
Sam Bachman RP15-DAY-IL
Wade Meckler LF7-DAY IL
Nolan Schanuel 1B10-DAY-IL
Sebastian Rivero C60-DAY-IL
Samy Natera Jr. RP15-DAY-IL
Shaun Anderson RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.