FINAL: LAD 3 — COL 4. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected LAD 4.8 - COL 3.9 (LAD at 64.5% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 9.5. Model projects 8.6 total runs.
LAD
4.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.5
COL
3.9
Projected Score
Win Probability
LADCOL
-1.5
Run Line (LAD)
9.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
COL W5LAD L5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 64.5% (2,779 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
COL
246
LAD
357
Projected
LAD 4.8 — COL 3.9
Actual
LAD 3 — COL 4
Pick Results
COL @ LAD NRFInrfiLOSS-0.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Ryan Feltner R
COL
FF26%95 mph11% whiff
SL25%89 mph28% whiff
CH15%85 mph50% whiff
Roki Sasaki R
LAD
FF44%98 mph15% whiff
FS23%90 mph32% whiff
SL21%87 mph37% whiff
Weather Impact
Dodger Stadium
76°F7 mph wind
HR: 0.999 Total: 0.997
thin air, 7mph in
Bullpen Comparison
COL
5.45ERA
4.65FIP
8.19K/9
4.48BB/9
1.58WHIP
LAD
3.58ERA
3.45FIP
10.00K/9
3.64BB/9
1.19WHIP
Betting Edges
F5_ML AWAY
+34.7% EV
+220
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-33.7% EV
+122
F5_ML HOME
-22.4% EV
-294
TOTAL OVER 9.5
-19.8% EV
-105
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-13.8% EV
-147
ML AWAY
+11.3% EV
+250
First 5 Innings & NRFI
COL F5
2.4 runs
40.3% win
LAD F5
2.6 runs
46.0% win
F5 Total
5.0
NRFI
50.5%
YRFI
49.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.08
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.8
Over 0.5 HR
93%
Over 1.5 HR
75%
No HR
7%
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Ryan Feltner
0.0 K projected
COL | K/9: 0.0
Roki Sasaki
0.0 K projected
LAD | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
COL8 injured
Hunter Goodman CDAY-TO-DAY
Brenton Doyle CF10-DAY-IL
Jose Quintana SP60-DAY-IL
Seth Halvorsen RP15-DAY-IL
Tomoyuki Sugano SP15-DAY-IL
Blas Castano RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
LAD8 injured
Blake Snell SP60-DAY-IL
Landon Knack SP60-DAY-IL
Enrique Hernandez 1B10-DAY-IL
Blake Treinen RP15-DAY-IL
Edwin Diaz RP60-DAY-IL
Will Smith C10-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -2RED ZONE44.3% WR (n=164)
Model shows 11.3% away ML edge (31.8% prob) for COL underdogs, but RED ZONE signal (away ML RED 44.3% WR) + market extremely confident (LAD -312 home = 75.8% implied) + F5_ML away showing 34.7% edge (worst kind of overconfidence signal) suggest model is CATASTROPHICALLY wrong on directionality — market is correct, LAD is 68.2% to win per model (not 31.8% COL) — SKIP both sides, massive data integrity failure.
Key Factors
- RED ZONE away ML 44.3% WR: model's 11.3% edge for COL away is historically worst-performing pattern
- Market confidence extreme: LAD -312 = 75.8% implied; model gives LAD 68.2% = minimal 7.6% disagreement
- Data integrity RED FLAG: F5_ML away edge shows -22.4% (negative conviction), contradicting +11.3% ML edge; indicates model confusion
- Pitcher: Sasaki (B-, new, 0 ERA) vs Feltner (B-, 6.5 K-rate) — Sasaki better on paper, but sample risk
- LAD elite team, COL rebuilding; market correctly heavily favors home
Risk Factors
- Away ML RED zone: 44.3% historical WR; model is WRONG on this direction per historical data
- Market at -312 is EXPENSIVE; even if LAD wins, covering -312 line is difficult
- F5_ML away negative edge (-22.4%) suggests model sees LAD early dominance, not COL comeback
RED ZONEHIGH EDGE WARNINGMODEL MARKET CONFLICTDATA INTEGRITY
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
LAD 64.5%
-13.8 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-13.8 pts
Total
9.5
+10.1 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →