OAK vs DET prediction for July 7, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects DET 3.5 - OAK 3.2. DET is favored with a 56.1% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 6.8 total runs.
DET
3.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
OAK
3.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
DETOAK
-1.5
Run Line (DET)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 56.6% (2,779 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
OAK
135
DET
245
Projected
DET 3.5 — OAK 3.2
Actual
DET 6 — OAK 2
Starting Pitcher Matchup
J.T. Ginn R
OAK
SI35%94 mph22% whiff
CH19%88 mph30% whiff
FC19%90 mph21% whiff
Tarik Skubal L
DET
FF36%97 mph17% whiff
CH25%87 mph47% whiff
SI20%97 mph13% whiff
Weather Impact
Comerica Park
86°F6 mph wind
HR: 1.074 Total: 1.039
thin air, 6mph out
Bullpen Comparison
OAK
4.87ERA
3.91FIP
9.81K/9
4.20BB/9
1.44WHIP
DET
4.22ERA
4.23FIP
8.86K/9
4.10BB/9
1.37WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-33.8% EV
-133
TOTAL OVER 8.0
-22.5% EV
-115
F5_ML HOME
-17.2% EV
-222
F5_ML AWAY
+16.7% EV
+172
TOTAL UNDER 8.0
+14.2% EV
-105
ML HOME
-11.0% EV
-204
First 5 Innings & NRFI
OAK F5
1.7 runs
37.7% win
DET F5
1.9 runs
44.4% win
F5 Total
3.6
NRFI
59.9%
YRFI
40.1%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.80
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.1
Over 0.5 HR
88%
Over 1.5 HR
62%
No HR
12%
Dillon Dingler DET29.6%
ISO: 0.294 | Barrel: 9.2% | vs J.T. Ginn | Park: 0.97x
Kerry Carpenter DET29.1%
ISO: 0.270 | Barrel: 12.3% | vs J.T. Ginn | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Spencer Torkelson DET23.4%
ISO: 0.227 | Barrel: 13.5% | vs J.T. Ginn | Park: 0.97x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
J.T. Ginn
0.0 K projected
OAK | K/9: 0.0
Tarik Skubal
0.0 K projected
DET | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
OAK6 injured
Tyler Soderstrom LF10-DAY-IL
Brent Rooker DH10-DAY-IL
Denzel Clarke CF60-DAY-IL
Luis Severino SP60-DAY-IL
Brooks Kriske RP60-DAY-IL
Gunnar Hoglund SP60-DAY-IL
DET8 injured
Jackson Jobe SP60-DAY-IL
Wenceel Perez RF60-DAY-IL
Gleyber Torres 2B10-DAY-IL
Will Vest RP15-DAY-IL
Parker Meadows CF60-DAY-IL
Burch Smith RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1RED ZONE44.3% WR (n=164)
Model favors OAK road underdog (+172 odds, 40.2% ML edge) and UNDER (14.2% edge), but both edges are in RED zones (away ML RED, totals YELLOW) and represent classic model overconfidence pattern — skip both sides, data integrity unclear.
Key Factors
- Pitcher MISMATCH against model call: Skubal (B+, 29.2% K-rate elite) >> Ginn (C+, 21.0% K-rate average) — DET home advantage ~15% win prob swing
- Weather: 85.9°F, 6.3 mph tail wind to right (out) — slight HR inflation (1.074x) but Skubal's dominance overwhelms
- Away ML RED zone: 44.3% WR historically; model's 9.5% edge (40.2% prob) is unlikely to cash given zone profitability
- UNDER edge 14.2% (6.79 model vs 8.0 market) is reasonable; however, paired with bad away ML call, raises data integrity concern
- DET bullpen better (4.22 ERA vs OAK 4.87 ERA) — another DET advantage
Risk Factors
- Away ML RED zone: 44.3% WR vs 49.5% market implied — model is overestimating road underdog odds
- Skubal is legitimately elite, but model seems to be underrating his impact despite B+ grade
- OAK recent form unknown; if team is cold, 9.5% edge is worthless; if team is hot, market is smart to stay away
RED ZONEMODEL MARKET CONFLICTHIGH EDGE WARNINGDATA INTEGRITY
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
DET 56.1%
-10.3 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-10.3 pts
Total
8.0
+14.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →