FINAL: NYM 12 — KC 16. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected NYM 3.0 - KC 3.4 (KC at 55.7% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 6.4 total runs.
NYM
3.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
KC
3.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
NYMKC
-1.5
Run Line (NYM)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
KC L5NYM
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 56.6% (2,779 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
KC
135
NYM
135
Projected
NYM 3.0 — KC 3.4
Actual
NYM 12 — KC 16
Pick Results
KC @ NYM NRFInrfiLOSS-0.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Seth Lugo R
KC
SI20%92 mph12% whiff
FF17%92 mph13% whiff
FC16%90 mph20% whiff
Cionel Pérez L
NYM
SI29%97 mph11% whiff
SV28%86 mph34% whiff
CU22%85 mph27% whiff
Weather Impact
Citi Field
67°F7 mph wind
HR: 0.986 Total: 0.991
5mph in
Bullpen Comparison
KC
4.34ERA
5.00FIP
8.61K/9
4.51BB/9
1.45WHIP
NYM
3.44ERA
3.69FIP
9.32K/9
3.58BB/9
1.21WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-38.7% EV
-106
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
+28.6% EV
-114
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-27.9% EV
-169
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-24.4% EV
+140
F5_ML HOME
-22.9% EV
-145
F5_ML AWAY
+17.5% EV
+116
First 5 Innings & NRFI
KC F5
2.1 runs
47.9% win
NYM F5
1.6 runs
34.7% win
F5 Total
3.7
NRFI
54.9%
YRFI
45.1%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.93
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.3
Over 0.5 HR
90%
Over 1.5 HR
66%
No HR
10%
Bobby Witt Jr. KC30.0%
ISO: 0.203 | Barrel: 12.5% | vs Cionel Pérez | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Salvador Perez KC30.0%
ISO: 0.188 | Barrel: 14.7% | vs Cionel Pérez | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Juan Soto NYM30.0%
ISO: 0.287 | Barrel: 18.1% | vs Seth Lugo | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Seth Lugo
0.0 K projected
KC | K/9: 0.0
Cionel Pérez
0.0 K projected
NYM | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
KC8 injured
Vinnie Pasquantino 1B10-DAY-IL
Kyle Isbel CF10-DAY-IL
Maikel Garcia 3B10-DAY-IL
Stephen Kolek SPBEREAVEMENT
Kris Bubic SP60-DAY-IL
Cole Ragans SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
NYM7 injured
Clay Holmes SP60-DAY-IL
Luis Robert Jr. CF60-DAY-IL
Marcus Semien 2B10-DAY-IL
Dedniel Nunez RP60-DAY-IL
Reed Garrett RP60-DAY-IL
Justin Hagenman RP60-DAY-IL
+1 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE50.1% WR (n=317)
Weak pitcher matchup (Perez 5.94 ERA vs Lugo 4.54 ERA, both B-) + cold weather (67°F, 7.2 mph wind blowing in = 5.4 mph net) + aggressive market overs creates 28.6% UNDER edge that is historically profitable (NRFI GREEN zone nearby, weather-suppression plays are strong) — LEAN unders despite YELLOW zone, edge is too large to ignore.
Key Factors
- Weather is DOMINANT: 67°F + 5.4 mph wind blowing in = coldest game on slate, estimated -1.0 to -1.5 run suppression vs baseline
- Pitcher weakness: Perez (5.94 ERA, 21.6% K-rate) is below-average; Lugo (4.54 ERA, 18.7% K-rate) is solid but not dominant
- Model 68.4% UNDER on 28.6% edge suggests 1.5+ run edge; weather tail (cold + wind in) is real driver
- Market overs bias: 8.5 total at cold temperature is market's classic bias — sharp bettors fade overs in cold
- NRFI GREEN zone (54.6% WR, n=60) is nearby — cold-weather first-inning plays historically strong
Risk Factors
- YELLOW zone totals: 50.1% WR; even with weather tail, realized WR may be 55-60% not 68%
- Both teams could be looking to jump out early to avoid cold weather late innings; early scoring could blow under
- 28.6% edge is large; model may be overconfident on weather impact relative to team adjustments
WEATHER IMPACTPITCHER MISMATCHZONE YELLOWTOTALS VALUE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
KC 55.7%
-24.4 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-24.4 pts
Total
8.5
+28.6 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →