SEA vs MIA prediction for July 7, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects MIA 3.9 - SEA 3.6. MIA is favored with a 55.4% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 7.5 total runs.
MIA
3.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
SEA
3.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
MIASEA
+1.5
Run Line (MIA)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 56.5% (2,779 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SEA
246
MIA
246
Projected
MIA 3.9 — SEA 3.6
Actual
MIA 6 — SEA 5
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Bryan Woo R
SEA
FF48%96 mph22% whiff
SI18%96 mph9% whiff
SL14%87 mph27% whiff
Max Meyer R
MIA
ST31%89 mph33% whiff
SL25%90 mph38% whiff
FF23%95 mph10% whiff
Weather Impact
loanDepot park
85°F7 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.063 Total: 1.034
6mph out
Bullpen Comparison
SEA
3.37ERA
3.72FIP
8.85K/9
3.64BB/9
1.33WHIP
MIA
3.85ERA
3.56FIP
9.97K/9
4.48BB/9
1.21WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-31.8% EV
-208
TOTAL OVER 8.0
-10.0% EV
-105
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-7.9% EV
+172
ML AWAY
-7.5% EV
+102
F5_ML AWAY
-6.4% EV
+102
F5_ML HOME
-4.4% EV
-128
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SEA F5
1.9 runs
38.3% win
MIA F5
2.1 runs
44.7% win
F5 Total
4.0
NRFI
56.6%
YRFI
43.4%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.89
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.3
Over 0.5 HR
89%
Over 1.5 HR
66%
No HR
11%
Dominic Canzone SEA29.8%
ISO: 0.294 | Barrel: 14.5% | vs Max Meyer | Park: 0.93x Platoon: 1.12x
Owen Caissie MIA24.4%
ISO: 0.177 | Barrel: 13.3% | vs Bryan Woo | Park: 0.93x Platoon: 1.12x
Liam Hicks MIA21.9%
ISO: 0.230 | Barrel: 3.5% | vs Bryan Woo | Park: 0.93x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Bryan Woo
0.0 K projected
SEA | K/9: 0.0
Max Meyer
0.0 K projected
MIA | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
SEA8 injured
Cooper Criswell RP60-DAY-IL
Brendan Donovan 3B10-DAY-IL
Julio Rodriguez CF7-DAY IL
Rob Refsnyder DH10-DAY-IL
Carlos Vargas RP60-DAY-IL
Will Wilson 3B60-DAY-IL
+2 more
MIA7 injured
Anthony Bender RP15-DAY-IL
Janson Junk SP15-DAY-IL
Josh Ekness RP60-DAY-IL
Andrew Nardi RP60-DAY-IL
Robby Snelling SP60-DAY-IL
Ronny Henriquez RP60-DAY-IL
+1 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1YELLOW ZONE50.1% WR (n=317)
Pitcher matchup favors home slightly (Meyer B vs Woo B+), but model calls this a coin flip (54.2% home win prob) with 0.7% total edge — data noise, not actionable — skip both ML and totals.
Key Factors
- Pitcher edge negligible: Meyer (B, 10.1 K-rate) vs Woo (B+, 8.7 K-rate, elite command) — ~2% raw advantage to home, offset by Woo's control
- Weather neutral: 84.7°F, 6.5 mph tail wind = slight inflation (~1.034x), but balanced by humidity (74%)
- Bullpen comparison: MIA 3.85 ERA vs SEA 3.37 ERA — SEA advantage (~0.5 runs) vs home park advantage (~0.3 runs) = roughly even
- Model-market gap negligible: 54.2% home vs 54.6% market implied = 0.4% disagreement = noise
- Totals: 7.5 model vs 8.0 market = 0.5-run edge, which is within normal variance
Risk Factors
- Coin flip games are money burners; no true informational edge exists
- SEA recent form / MIA recent form unknown; if one team is streaking, market may be smart to fade
NEUTRAL MATCHUPDATA INTEGRITY
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
MIA 55.4%
-31.8 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-31.8 pts
Total
8.0
+0.7 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →