FINAL: TB 6 — NYY 4. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected TB 3.1 - NYY 3.4 (NYY at 52.1% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 6.5 total runs.
TB
3.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
NYY
3.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
TBNYY
-1.5
Run Line (TB)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
NYY L5TB W5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,779 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
NYY
135
TB
135
Projected
TB 3.1 — NYY 3.4
Actual
TB 6 — NYY 4
Pick Results
NYY @ TB NRFInrfiWIN+0.88u
NYY @ TB F5 UNDER 4.5f5LOSS-1.00u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Will Warren R
NYY
FF40%94 mph20% whiff
SI27%93 mph19% whiff
ST20%84 mph22% whiff
Ian Seymour L
TB
CH31%83 mph32% whiff
FF23%92 mph20% whiff
ST23%81 mph36% whiff
Weather Impact
Tropicana Field
90°F6 mph windRoof: closed
HR: 1.000 Total: 1.000
Indoor (neutral)
Bullpen Comparison
NYY
3.36ERA
3.71FIP
8.80K/9
3.56BB/9
1.27WHIP
TB
4.35ERA
4.16FIP
8.55K/9
3.50BB/9
1.33WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-34.1% EV
-208
TOTAL OVER 8.0
-23.7% EV
-105
TOTAL UNDER 8.0
+13.8% EV
-115
F5_ML HOME
-11.1% EV
-130
ML HOME
-10.5% EV
-130
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-10.0% EV
+172
First 5 Innings & NRFI
NYY F5
1.8 runs
41.6% win
TB F5
1.8 runs
40.1% win
F5 Total
3.6
NRFI
58.2%
YRFI
41.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.81
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.9
Over 0.5 HR
85%
Over 1.5 HR
57%
No HR
15%
Paul Goldschmidt NYY30.0%
ISO: 0.366 | Barrel: 7.9% | vs Ian Seymour | Park: 0.92x Platoon: 1.12x
Ben Rice NYY30.0%
ISO: 0.253 | Barrel: 15.4% | vs Ian Seymour | Park: 0.92x
Amed Rosario NYY30.0%
ISO: 0.224 | Barrel: 6.0% | vs Ian Seymour | Park: 0.92x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Will Warren
0.0 K projected
NYY | K/9: 0.0
Ian Seymour
0.0 K projected
TB | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
NYY5 injured
Giancarlo Stanton DH10-DAY-IL
Carlos Rodon SP15-DAY-IL
Max Fried SP15-DAY-IL
Aaron Judge RF10-DAY-IL
Clarke Schmidt SP60-DAY-IL
TB8 injured
Jesse Scholtens RP15-DAY-IL
Steven Matz SP15-DAY-IL
Edwin Uceta RP60-DAY-IL
Jake Fraley RF10-DAY-IL
Manuel Rodriguez RP60-DAY-IL
Gavin Lux LF60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEANYELLOW ZONE50.1% WR (n=317)
Balanced pitcher matchup (Seymour B vs Warren B-, both 8.0 K-rate, similar quality) in 90°F domed stadium (neutral weather) creates modest 13.8% UNDER edge; market slightly inflated on scoring, model defensible but not strong conviction — LEAN only on totals.
Key Factors
- Pitcher balance: Seymour (B, 4.34 ERA, elite command) ≈ Warren (B-, 4.03 ERA, solid command) — no decisive advantage
- Dome neutrality: Tropicana Field at 90°F = perfectly neutral (1.0x park, 1.0x weather) — baseline run environment
- Model total 6.55 is reasonable; market 8.0 is inflated by ~0.5-0.75 runs relative to pitcher quality
- Bullpen advantage NYY (3.36 ERA vs 4.35 ERA) = ~1 run late-game edge, partially offset by road position
- Modest injuries (Judge, Stanton on IL) reduce NYY lineup quality slightly but not decisively
Risk Factors
- YELLOW zone totals: 50.1% historical WR; even 13.8% edge is marginal
- Domed stadiums can have unusual run profiles; Tropicana's quirky dimensions may suppress scoring more than modeled
- Balanced pitching = ML is coin flip; totals edge is only actionable play here
NEUTRAL MATCHUPWEATHER NEUTRAL
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
NYY 52.1%
-10.0 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-10.0 pts
Total
8.0
+13.8 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →