FINAL: WSH 3 — HOU 6. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected WSH 5.0 - HOU 3.9 (WSH at 62.2% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.5. Model projects 8.9 total runs.
WSH
5.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.5
HOU
3.9
Projected Score
Win Probability
WSHHOU
+1.5
Run Line (WSH)
9.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 60.2% (2,779 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
HOU
246
WSH
357
Projected
WSH 5.0 — HOU 3.9
Actual
WSH 3 — HOU 6
Pick Results
HOU @ WSH NRFInrfiLOSS-0.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Tatsuya Imai R
HOU
SL45%87 mph40% whiff
FF42%95 mph16% whiff
SI7%94 mph18% whiff
Andrew Alvarez L
WSH
CU28%83 mph35% whiff
FF28%92 mph10% whiff
SL26%84 mph36% whiff
Weather Impact
Nationals Park
85°F4 mph wind
HR: 1.052 Total: 1.028
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
HOU
4.13ERA
4.29FIP
8.50K/9
4.68BB/9
1.32WHIP
WSH
4.62ERA
4.93FIP
7.77K/9
4.06BB/9
1.38WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-24.3% EV
+158
F5_ML AWAY
-23.1% EV
+110
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-21.6% EV
-192
ML AWAY
-16.2% EV
+100
TOTAL OVER 9.5
-16.1% EV
-105
F5_ML HOME
+9.0% EV
-139
First 5 Innings & NRFI
HOU F5
1.9 runs
29.6% win
WSH F5
3.1 runs
57.6% win
F5 Total
5.0
NRFI
48.7%
YRFI
51.3%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.12
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.9
Over 0.5 HR
94%
Over 1.5 HR
76%
No HR
6%
Yordan Alvarez HOU30.0%
ISO: 0.330 | Barrel: 13.8% | vs Andrew Alvarez
James Wood WSH30.0%
ISO: 0.303 | Barrel: 16.3% | vs Tatsuya Imai | Platoon: 1.12x
Christian Walker HOU27.2%
ISO: 0.241 | Barrel: 12.9% | vs Andrew Alvarez | Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Tatsuya Imai
0.0 K projected
HOU | K/9: 0.0
Andrew Alvarez
0.0 K projected
WSH | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
HOU8 injured
Jeremy Pena SS10-DAY-IL
Bennett Sousa RP60-DAY-IL
Lance McCullers Jr. SP15-DAY-IL
Ronel Blanco SP60-DAY-IL
Kai-Wei Teng RP15-DAY-IL
Hayden Wesneski SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
WSH8 injured
Cade Cavalli SPSUSPENSION
Trevor Williams SP60-DAY-IL
Jake Irvin SP15-DAY-IL
Mitchell Parker RP60-DAY-IL
Richard Lovelady RP15-DAY-IL
DJ Herz SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE57.6% WR (n=16)
Pitcher slight edge to home (Alvarez B-, 3.29 ERA, 27.4% K-rate vs Imai B-, 9.5% K-rate, poor command) + home field (62.2% home win prob) + WSH bullpen weaker (4.62 ERA vs HOU 4.13 ERA) create 7.5% ML edge that is defensible in YELLOW zone (57.6% home ML WR) — LEAN home ML only, not totals.
Key Factors
- Pitcher advantage: Alvarez (B-, 3.29 ERA, elite 27.4% K-rate) >> Imai (B-, 9.5% K-rate, C+ command) — ~5% win prob advantage
- Home field: HOU at home in 84.6°F with 4.0 mph tail wind = slight HR inflation (1.052x); Nationals Park neutral
- Bullpen edge: HOU 4.13 ERA vs WSH 4.62 ERA = +0.5 run advantage, meaningful in close games
- Model 58.1% vs market 54.1% = 4% disagreement; solid but not explosive edge
- YELLOW zone home ML (57.6% WR, n=16) is stronger than overall RED zone (50.3%)
Risk Factors
- 7.5% edge is modest; home favors can underperform on road in August
- Imai is less-tested; if he exceeds expectations, model fails
- HOU recent bullpen fatigue from yesterday (demoted Burrows after 10-run outing) — may affect tonight's pitching depth
PITCHER MISMATCHML VALUEZONE YELLOW
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
WSH 62.2%
-21.6 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-21.6 pts
Total
9.5
+6.6 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →