FINAL: STL 3 — MIL 4. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected STL 2.8 - MIL 3.1 (MIL at 52.5% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 6.0 total runs.
STL
2.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
MIL
3.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
STLMIL
+1.5
Run Line (STL)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
MIL W5STL W4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.7% (2,779 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIL
135
STL
135
Projected
STL 2.8 — MIL 3.1
Actual
STL 3 — MIL 4
Pick Results
MIL F5 MLf5_mlLOSS-0.50u
MIL @ STL NRFInrfiWIN+0.89u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Jacob Misiorowski R
MIL
FF63%100 mph38% whiff
FC14%96 mph20% whiff
SL11%93 mph29% whiff
Matt Svanson R
STL
SI46%96 mph10% whiff
ST32%87 mph25% whiff
FC21%92 mph16% whiff
Weather Impact
Busch Stadium
89°F4 mph wind
HR: 1.063 Total: 1.033
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
MIL
3.66ERA
3.52FIP
9.38K/9
3.94BB/9
1.32WHIP
STL
4.30ERA
4.29FIP
8.27K/9
4.08BB/9
1.36WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-42.1% EV
+100
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-39.0% EV
-161
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
+29.3% EV
-122
F5 UNDER 4.5
+21.7% EV
-106
NRFI NRFI
+11.9% EV
-114
F5_ML HOME
-11.0% EV
-106
First 5 Innings & NRFI
MIL F5
1.7 runs
43.6% win
STL F5
1.5 runs
35.6% win
F5 Total
3.1
NRFI
64.9%
YRFI
35.1%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.68
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.4
Over 0.5 HR
73%
Over 1.5 HR
39%
No HR
27%
Brice Turang MIL30.0%
ISO: 0.240 | Barrel: 7.9% | vs Matt Svanson | Park: 0.98x Platoon: 1.12x
Jackson Chourio MIL30.0%
ISO: 0.241 | Barrel: 9.7% | vs Matt Svanson | Park: 0.98x
Alec Burleson STL16.8%
ISO: 0.278 | Barrel: 9.4% | vs Jacob Misiorowski | Park: 0.98x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Jacob Misiorowski
0.0 K projected
MIL | K/9: 0.0
Matt Svanson
0.0 K projected
STL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
MIL8 injured
Brandon Lockridge LF60-DAY-IL
David Hamilton 3B10-DAY-IL
Brandon Woodruff SP15-DAY-IL
Brian Fitzpatrick RP60-DAY-IL
Logan Henderson SP15-DAY-IL
Joel Kuhnel RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
STL4 injured
Ryne Stanek RPDAY-TO-DAY
Max Rajcic RP60-DAY-IL
Justin Bruihl RPDAY-TO-DAY
Ramon Urias 3B60-DAY-IL
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE50.1% WR (n=317)
Cold pitcher (Svanson 7.04 ERA, 8.0 K/9) vs. elite starter (Misiorowski A-, 38.1% K-rate) in 89°F weather with neutral wind creates 29.3% UNDER edge; market is betting runs, but pitcher mismatch and park-neutral fundamentals support suppression — YELLOW zone (50.1% WR) warrants caution on edge size, but direction is sound.
Key Factors
- Pitcher mismatch: Svanson (7.04 ERA, 0.46 K/BB ratio) vs Misiorowski (38.1% K-rate, A- grade) — 20%+ raw SP quality gap
- Weather: 89°F with 4.4 mph neutral wind — temperature adds ~0.3 runs via density altitude, but Svanson's poor control neutralizes scoring environment
- Model total 5.97 vs market 8.5 = 2.53-run under edge; YELLOW zone (50.1% WR) suggests edge is real but ~15% of claimed edge is model overconfidence
- Park factor 1.0 = neutral; no HR inflation
- Bullpen comparison: MIL 3.66 ERA (strong) vs STL 4.30 ERA (league average) — MIL relief advantage +0.5 runs late
Risk Factors
- Edge >20% on total: Historical worst performance; expect 48-50% realized WR, not 71.1% model prob
- High-edge totals are model WEAK POINT: 20.1% edge, 71.1% model prob have underperformed historically (YELLOW zone, 50.1% WR vs 317 bets)
- YELLOW zone calibration: SKIP historical verdict on high-edge totals was PENALIZE (49.6-52.8% WR), suggesting model is overconfident on run suppression calls
PITCHER MISMATCHWEATHER IMPACTEDGE ANALYSIS CONCERNMODEL MARKET CONFLICT
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
MIL 52.5%
-39.0 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-39.0 pts
Total
8.5
+29.3 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →