COL vs MIL prediction for July 26, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects MIL 4.3 - COL 3.6. MIL is favored with a 55.2% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 7.9 total runs.
MIL
4.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
COL
3.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
MILCOL
-1.5
Run Line (MIL)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 56.5% (2,978 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
COL
246
MIL
246
Projected
MIL 4.3 — COL 3.6
Actual
MIL 11 — COL 2
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Kyle Freeland L
COL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF26%92 mph11% whiff
FC22%88 mph19% whiff
KC21%82 mph31% whiff
Jacob Misiorowski R
MIL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF63%100 mph37% whiff
FC14%96 mph20% whiff
SL11%92 mph29% whiff
Weather Impact
American Family Field
87°F10 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.004 Total: 0.999
thin air, 8mph in
Bullpen Comparison
COL
5.45ERA
4.65FIP
8.19K/9
4.48BB/9
1.58WHIP
MIL
3.66ERA
3.52FIP
9.38K/9
3.94BB/9
1.32WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
COL F5
1.8 runs
30.8% win
MIL F5
2.6 runs
52.6% win
F5 Total
4.4
NRFI
56.9%
YRFI
43.1%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.91
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
COL8 injured
Brenton Doyle CF10-DAY-IL
Jeff Criswell RP15-DAY-IL
Jose Quintana SP60-DAY-IL
Blas Castano RP15-DAY-IL
Jaden Hill RP15-DAY-IL
Chase Dollander SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
MIL8 injured
Sal Frelick RF10-DAY-IL
Brandon Lockridge LF60-DAY-IL
Joel Kuhnel RP15-DAY-IL
Kyle Harrison SP15-DAY-IL
DL Hall RP15-DAY-IL
Brandon Woodruff SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →