FINAL: SF 3 — COL 4. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected SF 4.0 - COL 3.3 (SF at 55.4% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 7.3 total runs.
SF
4.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
COL
3.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
SFCOL
-1.5
Run Line (SF)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
COL W5SF
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 56.5% (2,790 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
COL
135
SF
246
Projected
SF 4.0 — COL 3.3
Actual
SF 3 — COL 4
Pick Results
COL @ SF NRFInrfiWIN+0.39u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Kyle Freeland L
COL
FF26%92 mph11% whiff
KC21%82 mph30% whiff
FC21%88 mph19% whiff
Tyler Mahle R
SF
FF48%92 mph17% whiff
FS26%86 mph26% whiff
FC14%88 mph10% whiff
Weather Impact
Oracle Park
60°F17 mph wind
HR: 0.940 Total: 0.964
13mph in
Bullpen Comparison
COL
5.45ERA
4.65FIP
8.19K/9
4.48BB/9
1.58WHIP
SF
4.06ERA
4.43FIP
8.10K/9
4.84BB/9
1.41WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-42.5% EV
-167
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-28.4% EV
+102
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
+16.8% EV
-123
ML HOME
-6.2% EV
-152
F5_ML HOME
-5.6% EV
-156
F5_ML AWAY
-5.0% EV
+124
First 5 Innings & NRFI
COL F5
1.9 runs
35.8% win
SF F5
2.3 runs
48.2% win
F5 Total
4.2
NRFI
55.6%
YRFI
44.4%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.92
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.9
Over 0.5 HR
85%
Over 1.5 HR
55%
No HR
15%
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Kyle Freeland
0.0 K projected
COL | K/9: 0.0
Tyler Mahle
0.0 K projected
SF | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
COL8 injured
Brenton Doyle CF10-DAY-IL
Jose Quintana SP60-DAY-IL
Seth Halvorsen RP15-DAY-IL
Tomoyuki Sugano SP15-DAY-IL
Blas Castano RP15-DAY-IL
Jaden Hill RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
SF8 injured
Matt Chapman 3B10-DAY-IL
Victor Bericoto RF10-DAY-IL
Daniel Susac C10-DAY-IL
Jonah Cox CF10-DAY-IL
Matt Gage RP15-DAY-IL
Harrison Bader CF10-DAY-IL
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
SF 55.4%
+2.1 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+2.1 pts
Total
8.5
+16.8 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →