COL vs SF prediction for July 12, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SF 4.6 - COL 4.2. SF is favored with a 53.8% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 8.7 total runs.
SF
4.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
COL
4.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
SFCOL
-1.5
Run Line (SF)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.7% (2,790 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
COL
246
SF
357
Projected
SF 4.6 — COL 4.2
Actual
SF 3 — COL 1
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Michael Lorenzen R
COL
CH20%85 mph31% whiff
FF19%94 mph8% whiff
SI18%93 mph10% whiff
Trevor McDonald R
SF
SI58%94 mph10% whiff
SL27%86 mph37% whiff
CH14%84 mph34% whiff
Weather Impact
Oracle Park
68°F15 mph wind
HR: 0.939 Total: 0.962
15mph in
Bullpen Comparison
COL
5.45ERA
4.65FIP
8.19K/9
4.48BB/9
1.58WHIP
SF
4.06ERA
4.43FIP
8.10K/9
4.84BB/9
1.41WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-37.7% EV
-167
TOTAL OVER 9.0
-13.9% EV
-114
F5_ML HOME
-7.3% EV
-145
ML HOME
-6.9% EV
-145
TOTAL UNDER 9.0
+5.1% EV
-106
F5_ML AWAY
-2.5% EV
+116
First 5 Innings & NRFI
COL F5
2.2 runs
38.6% win
SF F5
2.6 runs
45.9% win
F5 Total
4.8
NRFI
53.4%
YRFI
46.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.01
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.9
Over 0.5 HR
85%
Over 1.5 HR
57%
No HR
15%
Casey Schmitt SF29.6%
ISO: 0.254 | Barrel: 9.0% | vs Michael Lorenzen | Park: 0.88x
Bryce Eldridge SF29.1%
ISO: 0.223 | Barrel: 25.0% | vs Michael Lorenzen | Park: 0.88x Platoon: 1.12x
Rafael Devers SF27.6%
ISO: 0.212 | Barrel: 16.0% | vs Michael Lorenzen | Park: 0.88x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Michael Lorenzen
0.0 K projected
COL | K/9: 0.0
Trevor McDonald
0.0 K projected
SF | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
COL8 injured
Brenton Doyle CF10-DAY-IL
Jose Quintana SP60-DAY-IL
Seth Halvorsen RP15-DAY-IL
Tomoyuki Sugano SP15-DAY-IL
Blas Castano RP15-DAY-IL
Jaden Hill RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
SF8 injured
Matt Chapman 3B10-DAY-IL
Victor Bericoto RF10-DAY-IL
Daniel Susac C10-DAY-IL
Jonah Cox CF10-DAY-IL
Matt Gage RP15-DAY-IL
Harrison Bader CF10-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1YELLOW ZONE50.1% WR (n=328)
Model projects 53.8% SF home win, market implies 59.0% (SF -144). That's -6.9% edge against home team — model favors away COL slightly. However, weather is EXTREME: 68.5°F + 14.9 mph wind blowing IN at Oracle Park (marine layer, massive HR suppression). This weather overwhelms all other factors. Unclear if model properly weights wind impact; data integrity risk.
Key Factors
- Extreme weather: 68.5°F (coldest on slate) + 14.9 mph in wind = HR multiplier 0.939 (suppression)
- Park factor: Oracle 0.88 (suppressice) + weather multiplier 0.962 = severe run suppression expected
- Pitcher: McDonald (19.0% K-rate, B-) slight edge over Lorenzen (16.2% K-rate, C+)
- Model edge: -6.9% against home (SF favored by market but not model) — DATA INTEGRITY FLAG
- NRFI 51.6% (edge +1.2%) shows low early scoring expected due to weather
Risk Factors
- DATA INTEGRITY: Model disfavors home SF despite market preferring them. Likely due to weather weighting in sim.
- 14.9 mph wind at Oracle is extreme and may not be fully priced by market
- COL home run hitters (Elly De La Cruz, Sal Stewart) have 30% HR prob each, but park/weather will suppress significantly
WEATHER IMPACTDATA INTEGRITYMODEL MARKET CONFLICT
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
SF 53.8%
-0.1 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-0.1 pts
Total
9.0
+5.1 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →